So, Friday trade again has puzzled many market’s participants. We shall remind that it is already traditional the American session, finishing trading week, is the best time for correction of all previous week tendency.

Except for this expectation of correction amplified after the publication of data on trade balance of the USA for March, which showed significant reduction of deficit. And reduction of deficit is observed the second straight month. The size of deficit reached August level of the last year. Experts connect decrease in deficiency with that the American companies began to export more raw material and the trading equipment.

Let's remind that at the forecast -67.3 billion dollars, value of the indicator for March made -62.0 billion dollars. And the previous value has been revised from -65.7 to -65.6 billion dollars.

Thus import reduced to $176.66 billion in March from $178.16 billion in February, export grew to $114.66 billion from $112.52 billion.

The import prices in April, 2006 rose 2.1 % in comparison with March; and the export prices for the same period grew 0.6 %. Both indicators were at enough high levels, and first of them became maximal since September, 2005.

Experts on the average expected a rise in export prices on 0.2 %, import - on 1.1 %. In March, according to earlier published data, the rise in export prices made 0.2 %, and data about the import prices were revised to decrease on 0.2 % from reduction on 0.4 %.

Despite a positive of these data, dollar could not take advantage of a situation and continued its dip. Therefore the subsequent release, which data were frankly disappointing, has only accelerated falling the American currency.

Let's remind that according to preliminary data University of Michigan Sentiment Index fell unexpectedly to 79 points in March from 87,4 points in April whereas experts assumed decrease at 86,0.

It is remarkable that the index of an estimation of current conditions decreased to 96.2 from 109.2, and the index of expectations - to 68.0 from 73.4.

Let's remind that the University of Michigan index is calculated monthly by results of poll of about 500 families.

The reason of sharp decline of the index became alarm of Americans because of a rise in petroleum prices and growth of credit cost. We shall remind that similar sharp decrease in the given parameter was caused by hurricanes Katherine and Rita in September of the last year.

Let's notice that after the publication of University of Michigan index experts lowered probability of the next interest rates increase at June FOMC meeting. As a result today the probability of this event is already at a level of 38 %. We shall remind that speculations around a question of rates rise were the main driver in the market last months.

Let's remind that two important economic indicators, which are always taken into consideration by Federal Open Market Committee, will be published today.

So, at 12:30 GMT the publication of NY Empire State Index for May is planned. We shall remind that the forecast is equal to 17.0, and the previous value 15.8.

A little bit later, at 13:00 GMT Net Foreign Purchases data for March will be released. We shall remind that the previous value +86.9 billion dollars.

It is obvious that with reduction of trade deficit in March to 62.0 billion dollars the need in its foreign financing decreased a little, therefore good data of TICS report will likely lead to a new wave of profit-taking on dollar "shorts", which we observe today from the beginning of the tenders.

We shall also remind that the given indicator is very difficult to predict, therefore the range of expectations is rather wide. For example, today the spread of estimations of the largest analytical centers varies from $ 70 billion up to $100 billion.

It is more important for the majority of the market’s participants to see dynamics of the indicator in comparison with the previous value. So, for example, its further growth (above 86.9 billion dollars) will for certain lead to a deepening of correction in favor of dollar.

As a result the first purpose of dollar/franc correction will be a level 1.2230, and then, in case of continuation of growth, and the key purpose of correction - 1.2360. Such purpose for dollar/canadian is levels 1.1280-95.

Therefore for aggressive players we recommend short-term purchases of dollar/franc and dollar/canadian rates if TICS in March exceeds previous value (86.9 billion dollars).

In that case it is necessary to buy pairs from current levels at the moment of the publication (13:00 GMT). And protective stop should be placed at distance of 100 points from a level of position opening.

Strategic players should remain outside the market, waiting for end of correction.