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So, drop in dollar, growing, makes to be more cautious in an estimation of a situation the increasing quantity of the market’s participants.
Let's remind that the data, published yesterday, were weaker than analysts’ expectations that strengthened the general negative in relation to the American currency.
So, according to the US Department of Commerce, the volume of retail sales in April, 2006 was up 0.5 % in comparison with March, and excluding automobiles - up 0.7 %.
However experts forecast growth of the total retail sales in April of 0.7 %, and excluding automobiles - of 0.9 %.
Thus in March, 2006 retail sales excluding automobiles in the USA were up 0.5 % instead of 0.4 % as it was informed earlier. And data about the total growth of retail sales in the USA were left without changes.
Estimating these data, economists notice the reason of smaller retail sales growth than forecasts in April is caused by increase of fuel costs, that, in turn leads to decrease in payments for other goods.
Let's notice that the importance of the given indicator for FRS is rather great. We shall remind that retail sales make about half of all consumer expenses in the USA, which share in GDP of the country makes about two third.
Taking into account the fact that FRS Head Ben Bernanke repeatedly declared that their further steps would consider the coming economic information, and also, that lower rates of increase in retail sales can become one of signals of delay of economic growth in the USA, some analysts have assumed that it can force FRS to make a pause in a firming cycle.
Another yesterday's indicator though also less significant however, describing a current situation in the employment market, was also noticeably worse than the expected level. So, the jobless claims in the USA for a week on May, 6th made 324 thousand at the forecast 312 thousand. And the previous value is revised from 322000 up to 325000.
As a result the average number of new jobless claims for four weeks by May, 6th grew up to 317.250 from 314.750 a week earlier.
The total number of jobless in the USA for May, 6th fell to 2.392 million from 2.441 million a week earlier. Thus it was originally informed on 2,449 million.
As a result, after the publication of data the dollar exchange rate slumped. So, growth of euro/dollar pair at the American session reached a level 1.2871, maximal for last year. Thus on results of the day the pair rose almost 190 points.
And the dollar/franc rate fell 215 points, having reached a level 1.2086. And decline of a rate was accelerated on a background of operation of stop-orders under levels 1.2180 and 1.2150.
Let's remind that today besides the important data on a consumer price index of two leading economies of Europe (Germany and France), the publication of the whole series of the major idndicators of the American economy is planned.
So, at 12:30 GMT following data will be released:
- Trade balance in billion dollars of the USA for March. The forecast -67.3, and the previous value -65.7.
- Import price index in the USA for April. We shall remind that the previous value was equaled -0.4 %
- Export price index in the USA for April. The previous value was equaled +0.2 %.
Later, at 13:45 GMT preliminary value of University of Michigan Sentiment Index in the USA for May, which will define dynamics of the dollar on forthcoming week, will be published.
Let's remind that the forecast of the indicator makes 86.7, and the previous value was 87.4.
Taking into account strengthening of a dollar negative last days of the current week, we suggest not to buy dollar in the given situation even by aggressive and short-term players. Weakness of today's indicators can warm up the market even more and lead the dollar to agiotage sales.
Conclusion: it is not necessary "stay before rushing train" counting on that "your station will be final in its schedule".
As a result from earlier given recommendations only recommendations for long-term players hold good: sales of dollar/franc and dollar/canadian rates are possible after their correction.
While it is necessary to remain outside the market.


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