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USDCHF, USDCAD Communique kept uncertainty about FRS further steps, however the report of US Treasury Department supported a dollar exchange rate...

16:43 05/11/2006

So, as well as assumed the majority of experts result of yesterday's FOMC meeting became the next increase of the interest rate on 0.25 % up to a level of 5%.

It is remarkable that the given decision about increase was made unanimously.

 

In comparison with the previous document FOMC has changed the exchange instruction a little, in experts’ opinion the main thing of which is the phrase that for compensation of risks of inflationary pressure some monetary policy firming will be necessary.

 

At the same time the text of the communique was added a phrase that FOMC further steps will depend on the economic prospects, reflected by current statistics. As a result this phrase has kept uncertainty about FOMC next steps. So, in opinion of many analysts, this phrase does not exclude also a possible pause in firming cycle.

 

As a result right after the announcement of results of Federal Open Market Committee meeting the rate of euro/dollar reached a mark of 1.2832, a new maximum for last year. Dollar/franc pair has tested new depth at 1.2118, having come near the key support levels mentioned by us (1.2000-50).

Despite hawkish statements of Bank of Japan representatives, and their threat to make intervention in dollar support yesterday the dollar/yen rate fell to a mark 110.10, minimal for last eight months.

 

We shall also remind that “greenback” falling happens on a background of growth of precious metals quotations and strengthening of so-called raw currencies. So, the gold rate reached a mark of 708.70 dollars for troy ounce, maximal for last 25 years.

 

The second yesterday's event - the publication of the semi-annual report on the exchange rate policy of the US Treasury Department, contrary to investors’ fears, was not dollar-negative.

Let's remind that in the report, published yesterday, China was not called the manipulator of a rate of exchange, and instead of this softer formulation was published - it was noticed that the increase in flexibility of exchange rate policy of China is "a critical and urgent question".

Thus the criticism of Chinese People's Republic government for too slow rates of the reforms and preservation of an artificial mode of the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan at official meetings of representatives of two countries still proceeds.

 

As a whole tone of the report was rather positive. So, the report describes a condition of the American economy as excellent, that assumes the balanced growth in future.

Besides US Treasury Department does not expect that outflow of the investment capital in the near future can be massive. In the text of the document is also underlined that current account deficit continues to be financed from private sources, thus there are no enough signals to approve that the Central Banks of other states diversify their dollar reserves.

 

As a result right after publication of the report the dollar exchange rate strengthened noticeably against the basic currencies. So the euro/dollar rate fell to 1.2780, and the dollar/franc rate after testing a mark of 1.2118 was up 180 points to a level of 1.2302.

 

It is necessary to notice that despite the yesterday's report of US Treasury Department the general tendency of dollar easing has not yet undergone changes. Besides expectations that process of interest rates increase in the USA in the near future will come to the end, and also fears of continuation of trade balance and current account rise in the USA, keep putting powerful pressure upon a dollar exchange rate.

 

As a result drop in dollar, according to our estimations, will soon renew again and will proceed up to the levels stated by us. And after their achievement we wait for realization for long-felt correction in favor of dollar.

While all our former recommendations hold good.

 

 

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