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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. FRS decision helped dollar local strengthening.

13:02 05/11/2006

As it was expected by the majority of analysts at yesterday's FOMC meeting federal funds rates were increased by 25 basic points up to 5 %. Thus a level of rates of the USA became the highest in the 5th countries and associations - the USA, EU, Japan, the UK and Switzerland, which currencies makes the lion's share of all volume of operations in FOREX.

 

In the brief comment the Committee has noted that economic rise remains strong enough. However in the further there can be necessary measures on gradual cooling of economy.

 

While a rise in energy prices and other consumer goods have no significant influence on the basic inflation. Growth of productivity helps to keep growth of manpower cost under the control.

 

The Committee has emphasized that the further strengthening of monetary policy can be necessary to exclude inflationary risks, but has emphasized that the choice of time of strengthening will depend on a particular economic situation.

 

All Committee members have unanimously voted for this decision.

 

Thus FRS rate has been lifted the16 time in a row. Despite Ben Bernanke's explicit statements about softening of monetary policy in recent statement in Congress the Committee did not do it sharply and preferred to deduce the economy softly. The Committee has regarded inflation risks as more prevailing, and high economic growth can keep a situation under the control.

 

However and in this brief comment there is a hint that rates will be raised only proceeding from a concrete situation as in future recession of economic activity is supposed.

 

In spite of the fact that the decision was expected the market have reacted to it by growth of dollar purchases against the basic currencies. At the Asian session the dollar became stronger almost on 100 points. However correction was not so essential.

 

The further movement of currencies depends on the basic fundamental indicators. Data on a labour market, published on Friday, were weaker than the expectations.

 

Today the whole block of the important news over the USA is expected.

Week data on jobless claims, retail trade inventories for April and retail sales for April.

 

Tomorrow the important indicator - Trade Balance - Trade balance between the USA and the developed countries is expected. The big attention will be directed to the foreign trade balance with the countries of the Asian region and the European Union.

 

The euro is supported by positive expectations over Europe.

As economists’ survey say ?-12 economy can show rates of growth for first three months of this year twice as much the last quarter as the export profit stimulates internal investments.

 

According to results of research, the economy for January-March could show growth on 0.6 % against 0.35 in the 4 quarter of the last year.

 

Illustrations of faster rates of economic growth made investors to forecast that ECB will raise the interest rate to 2.75 % in June the third time for six months. The confidence of Europeans in economy, and also development in sectors of a manufacturing industry and services rose up to five years' tops in April.

 

Recommendations.

Now it is necessary to watch closely current news and while we remain outside the market.

 

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