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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

22:14 05/10/2006

Yesterday before the important economic publications rates of the basic currencies continued trade in the limited price ranges.

The attention of the market’s participants is focused on FOMC meeting and also on the publication of the US Treasury report about foreign exchange market.

The next FOMC meeting, where the level of the basic interest rates will be discussed, takes place already today.

According to forecasts of the majority of economists the federal funds rate will be raised 0.25 % up to a level of 5.00 %. It becomes the sixteenth increase of the rate in the USA since June, 30th, 2004.

 

At the same time the market’s participants expect that at the end of meeting of FRS head opportunity of the end of the period of interest rates increase can be said that puts pressure upon a rate of the American currency.

 

In its turn yesterday the British currency was supported after BRC data on retail sales one more positive economic report.

 

According to the published data of the British consortium of retail dealers in April volumes of retail sales in the country were restored.

Thus, the total sales in Great Britain were up 9.8 % y/y in April against growth of 1.6 % in March.

The gain was maximal since March, 2002.

These data reduced expectations concerning inevitable drop in rates of Bank of England.

 

Industrial production in Germany reduced 2.4 % in March after growth of the last month 1 %. It became the maximal decline since February, 1999.

Economists forecast growth 0.5 % for a month.

The issue of data influenced negatively on the euro rate.

 

In the meantime the Japanese yen became stronger after the message that the Bank of Japan would raise the estimation of economy for the first time for 15 years. It raised at once the market’s expectations concerning acceleration of terms of the beginning of monetary firming in the country.

 

On Tuesday the Department of Commerce of the USA informed that inventories in the USA in March were up 0.2 % while wholesales were down 0.7 %.

Economists expected growth of inventories on 0.5 %.

Inventories’ rise in February has been revised to 0.9 % against 0.8 %. The revised wholesales in February grew 0.3 %.

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