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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Before announcement of results of FOMC meeting dollar remains vulnerable...

21:57 05/10/2006

So, before today's FOMC meeting, where the level of the basic interest rates will be discussed, and publication of the US Treasury report about a situation in Forex, the dollar has continued its decrease.

 

Let's notice that the majority of experts assume that the federal funds rate will be raised 0.25 % up to a level of 5.00 % that will be already the sixteenth increase of the rate in the USA since June, 30th, 2004.

Let's remind that results of Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be known today at 18:15 GMT.

 

The market’s participants expect that at the end of meeting of FRS head opportunity of the end of the period of interest rates increase can be said that puts pressure upon a rate of the American currency.

 

It is also necessary to notice that analysts’ forecasts concerning the final instruction from the point of view of its tone are varied noticeably.

So, some experts suppose that Federal Open Market Committee will prefer more peaceful expressions concerning rates to avoid agiotage dollar sales.

However other experts are sure that as the further weakness of the American currency is necessary for correction of a situation with structural disbalances in a national economy a hint that Fed is going to take a pause in a cycle of interest rates increase of, can be kept.

 

Let's remind that smooth devaluation of a rate of the American currency is simply necessary for correction of a situation with deficits (trade and budgetary). So, the weak dollar increases import prices that in its turn tends to increase foreign demand for American production and strengthens expansion of a national economy.

Recognizing desirability of dollar easing, experts assume that FRS head Bernanke is guilty of significant decline of the American currency rate within last weeks. Rates of dollar falling can cause fears. Therefore, taking it into consideration the Federal Reserve will not advertise its position of this question.

 

It is necessary to notice that the general dollar aversion has been strengthened by speculation about a theme that in today's semi-annual report about in exchange rate policy of the US Treasury Department China will be named as the manipulator. The American currency usually reacts very sensitively to such intensity in relations between two largest world powers.

 

Let's remind that such "antidollar" moods in the market prevail already during last month. One of the factors, confirming such investors’ moods, is growth of a rate of precious metals and raw currencies.

So, the gold rate has grown from a mark 677.00 up to 700.40 dollars for ounce, maximal for more than 25 years, and the canadian dollar rate against the American dollar has become stronger up to maximum levels for the last almost thirty years. We shall remind that only yesterday the dollar/canadian lost almost two figures, having decreased from a level 1.1165 to 1.0972.

 

Let's notice that wholesale inventories index for March, published yesterday, did not add players’ optimism, which was considerably below the expected level. So, value of the indicator made +0.2 %, at the forecast of +0.5 %. And the previous value is revised from +0.8 % up to +0.9 %.

 

Except for results of FOMC meeting today the market’s participants will pay attention to the publication of value of the federal budget in the USA for April at 18:00 GMT. We shall remind that the forecast is equal to +80.0 billion dollars, and the previous value was equaled -85.5 billion dollars.

 

Our former recommendations while hold good. The affinity of key resistance levels and recoilless three-week dollar falling assume realization of some correction, caused by fixing of long-term "shorts". Levels of position opening and their purposes also hold good.

While, before achievement of the mentioned levels of position opening by the rates, it is necessary to remain outside the market.

 

 

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