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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Quotations are again subject to emotional splashes of change of spirits.

13:50 05/10/2006

Players pay little attention to fundamental indicators.

 

Yesterday the dollar again weakened its positions after short-term correction. The reason of sharp change of moods is the situation around the Iranian problem and expectation of FOMC decision, results of the meeting will be published today in the middle of the American session.

 

Secretary of State Kondoliza Rize took part in New York meeting of Ministers for Foreign Affairs of the countries - constant members of Security Council of the United Nations, having the veto right. At the meeting the Iranian nuclear problem was discussed. Earlier the Secretary of State declared that she did not consider the letter of the President of Iran Makhmud Akhmadinejad to the US President Bush as a diplomatic break.

 

Let's remind that at the beginning of week the President of Iran Makhmud Akhmadinejad sent the letter to President Bush, where he offers new decisions of the problems, causing a tension between two countries. It is the first official contact at the highest level between Teheran and Washington for last twenty-six years.

Akhmadinejad’s message to George Bush was sent to embassy of Switzerland in Teheran, which represents interests of the USA in Islamic republic from the moment of break of relations in 1980. This circumstance has caused hope for the peaceful settlement of the conflict, that at once affected world stock exchanges, oil dipped below a mark $70 for barrel and dollar downtrend has designated correction.

However the US administration’s reaction to this letter was more than cold.

 

 

Akhmadinejad’s letter was a possible attempt of Iran to distract attention from the agenda of New York meeting of heads of six foreign policy departments - strategy of settlement of a nuclear problem of Iran. Though the head of the Iranian delegation at negotiations with International Atomic Energy Agency regarded Akhmadinejad’s letter as the important diplomatic initiative, the United States ignored this letter.

 

In interview to Associated Press agency Secretary of State Kondoliza Rize has told that Akhmadinejad’s letter on 17-18 pages touches questions of history, philosophy and religion, but does not give concrete answers to the questions, concerning nuclear ambitions of Iran.

 

Other representatives of administration have noticed that Akhmadinejad’s letter is an attempt to complicate efforts of the United States to achieve the resolution of Security council of the United Nations urging Iran to stop work on uranium enrichment. In particular, director of National investigation of the United States John Negroponte, in conversation with correspondents in the White House, has told: «Taking into account that fact that the Iranian question now is considered by Security council of the United Nations, it is certainly necessary to take into consideration that one of the probable reasons of the letter is connected with attempts to influence anyhow on a course of debate in Security council».

 

China and Russia refuse definitely to support the resolution against the nuclear program of Iran according to the seventh chapter of UNO Charter, entitling to carry out military operation even if at present the resolution does not contain the requirements, concerning immediate sanctions against Iran.

 

Before the beginning of New York meeting of Ministers for Foreign Affairs, the constant representative of Chinese People's Republic in the United Nations Van Guanja told that his government is categorically against the resolution of Security council, where the seventh chapter of the UNO Charter is mentioned and insists on that any text of the resolution does not  mention probable sanctions or military operations.

 

The decision about FRS rate will be today to the main economic expectation of the markets.

The majority of analysts assume that at this meeting the rate will be increased by 0,25 basic points, however it becomes last meeting in a cycle of permanent increase of the federal funds rate. Players’ attention will be also directed to the semi-annual US Treasury report.

 

Recommendations

Today it is better to fix all positions and to remain outside the market.

 

 

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