USmarket Probable continuation of a cycle of FRS rate increase puts pressure upon key stock indexes
11:47 05/04/2006

On a background of statements that FRS Head was misunderstood when said that FRS was close to end of firming cycle, the American shares opened with decrease at opening of trading session on Wednesday.

Thus even unexpectedly strong Time Warner Inc quarter results could not support a decreasing market. We shall remind that the net profit of the world's largest media-company Time Warner Inc in the first quarter of 2006 grew up to $1.5 billion, or 32 cents per a share from $915 million, or 19 cents per a share a year earlier.

It was promoted by increase in number of subscribers of a cable television and the high-speed Internet.

Time Warner profit per a share, except for lump sum of balance sheet account, made 20 cents in comparison with 17 cents in the first quarter of the last year.

Time Warner, owning the Internet-service and portal AOL, film studio Warner Brothers and cable broadcasting company HBO, informed that the proceeds rose 1% up to $10.5 billion. Thus experts forecast that the company’s profit per a share would make 20 cents, and proceeds - $10.887 billion.

Falling of oil quotations and unexpectedly good economic data, published yesterday could not support the falling market. We shall remind that after achievement of a level 75.35 dollars for barrel last days, yesterday oil price in New York fell up to a mark of 72.28 dollars for barrel.

Technical analysts warn that yesterday's closing below $ 73.50 will lead to formation of a key day time bear turn, a signal for sale which strengthens decline.

Experts say that the similar situation already developed on February, 1st then during two weeks oil quotations decreased $11.50.

Publication of two rather important indicators, which exceeded predicted levels, did not support decreasing indexes.

So, the factory orders index for March in the USA made +4.2 % for a month, at the forecast was +3.8 % for a month. And the previous value has been revised from +0.2 % up to +0.4 % for a month.

Thus durable orders, which service life makes not less than three years, grew in March 6.5 % in monthly calculation after growth of 3.5 % the last month.

And the ratio stocks-sales made in March 1.17 months as well as in February.

Rates of growth became maximal since May, 2005. Economists notice that the companies put means in new computers, the machine equipment and updating of stocks of raw material as the growing demand for production led to an exhaustion of available resources.

The second yesterday's indicator - ISM index in service sphere in the USA made 63.0 for April, at the forecast 59.2, and the previous value 60.5.

Let's remind that the institute calculated the index on the basis of data from 370 companies from 62 service sectors. At that value of the indicator above 50 points means expansion in the sector, below - downturn.

Experts also notice that key components of the index also showed growth. So, the new orders index in service sphere in April grew up to 64.6 points from 59.5 in March. The price index rose up to 70.5 points from 60.5 points. And the employment index in April was up to 56.5 points from 54.6 in March.

Besides analysts notice that in spite of the fact that the enterprises of service sphere consider a rise in prices, caused by a rise in energy price, "a serious occasion for anxiety", substantial growth of number of workplaces promotes advance of consumers expenses on the goods and services that allows the companies to overcome negative influence of high energy cost.

As a result Dow-Jones index of New York stock exchange was down 16.17 points and was closed at a level 11400.28. NASDAQ index dipped 5.87 points and is at a level 2303.97. S&P 500 index reduced 5.36 points and is at a level 1307.85.

And 30-year US Treasury notes’ yield raised 0.036 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 5.236.

We still suggest to wait for descending correction of key indexes, being outside the market. After end of this correction new purchases of futures for Dow-Jones and S&P 500 indexes are possible.

 

 


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