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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Dollar is again under pressure of negative political factors.

13:07 05/03/2006

Oil market again becomes the basic center of attention in world exchange platforms. The main driver of movements in world foreign exchange market become events connected with oil.

 

The dollar is again under pressure of influence of negative political factors.

 

At the summit of representatives of 5 countries - constant members of UN Security council - the USA, Russia, China, Great Britain and France together with Germany could not reach an agreement concerning a draft resolution of the United Nations on the Iranian nuclear programs.

 

The Deputy of the US Secretary of State Nicolas Burns, the participant of a meeting from the USA said in interview to journalists that the USA adheres consistently to a hard line and acceptance by the countries of the Six of a draft resolution, which would allow to apply the strict measures to Iran.

He has also noted that Europeans also tend to this decision, however China and Russia insist on a diplomatic way of the decision of a problem.

Therefore the USA urges these two countries, having the right of the veto, to accept a neutral position and to abstain from voting on a draft resolution.

 

The USA are ready to use sanctions against Iran passing over Security council of the United Nations if this body does not give its consent, John Bolton, the constant representative of the USA in United Nations, declared in Washington in the Congress of the USA on Tuesday.

 

"If for any reasons Council cannot discharge its obligations then we should do it, and I am sure that we will go forward and ask other countries or groups of the countries to apply such sanctions", - Bolton said.

 

Iran has reacted to these statements sharply and again has threatened with an attack to the West and Israel.

 

Passions are also strengthened by events in Bolivia, the second-largest gas and oil-producer in South America after Venezuela. The Bolivian army has entered territory of all largest oil and gas fields of the country. It happened after the President of Bolivia Evo Marales signed the decree about nationalization of oil-and-gas sector. Within 180 days 26 foreign companies should conclude new contracts on extraction of hydrocarbon raw material.

 

The British oil-and-gas companies study the decision of Bolivia to nationalize gas deposits and expect development of a situation. The European Commission has already been anxious about the decision of Bolivia government, which, in opinion of the European officials, "can have negative consequences for the markets as now the markets are under significant pressure of prices”.

 

On this background of the quotation of May oil futures have again approached near the record historical levels, tested by price at the end of April. Yesterday quotations of futures on light oil in NYMEX increase up to $74,59 for barrel, having tested $74,90 for barrel during day time session.

 

The dollar is also under pressure of influence of negative expectations of fundamental news over the USA. The issue of ISM index is expected today.

Experts expect drop in major value of this indicator on 13 points to 59,2 for April. The principal cause of decline of the parameter analytics consider a rise in energy prices, which considerably increase production costs. The positive factor is considered employment growth and rise of factory orders, these indicators can as analysts consider keep the index from stronger falling.

 

Technical picture. The euro again has become stronger up to week tops against dollar, having come nearer a psychological level 1,27.

On pound sterling the price tested rather strong level 1,8460.

On long-term Longs on euro from 1,24 stop can be moved at higher level 1,2550, the purpose 1,276 is kept.

 

 

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