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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Ben Bernanke is main disturber of peace in market...

15:00 05/02/2006

So, FRS Head Ben Bernanke again becomes the catalyst of powerful market movements. We shall remind that last week on Thursday his comments were regarded by the market as the statement about readiness to finish process of interest rates increase in the country that strengthened noticeably pressure upon a dollar exchange rate.

And yesterday Bernanke’s statement that FRS will carry out an aggressive policy to restrain inflation rate, has supported a little a rate of the American currency.

After yesterday's Bernanke’s statement some experts supposed that mass media and the market misunderstood his previous comments in Congress last week.

However, as a matter of fact it is already obvious that yesterday's Bernanke’s more accurate definitions change a little a current situation, where the market has already had pessimistic moods to the American currency.

 

Let's notice nevertheless that FRS Chairman has again pointed out the importance of current economic data for a choice of a monetary policy line. In this connection it is necessary to remind that this week on Friday there is a labor market report for April, which is very important for the market.

It is obvious that strong data of Friday review will for certain support the American currency, and will create preconditions for realization of long-felt correction, which as a result will allow all large players to sell the dollar again, but already from safer levels.

Moreover, if the market expectations concerning Friday review are positive the beginning of correction is not excluded already today - tomorrow.

However, on the other hand, if nonfarm payrolls data disappoint the market the total dollar aversion by the market will receive a new impulse, and the further growth of the euro/dollar rate to a mark 1.29 will be only a matter of time.

Let's remind once again that the key purpose of drop in the dollar/franc rate still remains a level 1.2000-50. After achievement of this mark the probability ascending correction of the rate will increase considerably.

Let's notice that decreasing, dollar/Canadian has practically ignored its 15-year minimum at a mark 1.1187, that it is not characteristic for such situations. For us it serves as one more argument in favor of fast correction of the rate.

 

Current economic data in the USA are at rather high level and if for a while to abstract from a real problem of growing deficits the first world economics can be an example for European, Japanese and other economies.

 

As Institute for Supply Management informed rates of growth of industrial activity in the USA were accelerated in April, 2006.

The index, which reflects activity in industrial sector of the USA, in April, 2006 grew up to 57.3 points from 55.2 in March. And experts forecast that April value of the index would make 55.0 points.

Thus the new orders index reduced to 57.6 points in April from 58.4 points in March, the price index rose to 71.5 points from 66.5 points, and the employment index increased up to 55.8 points from 52.5 points.

It is necessary to remind that value of the index above 50 points means expansion in sector, below - recession.

 

Another important indicator - construction spending in the USA, has hit a record. We shall remind that as the US Department of Commerce informed construction spending in March, 2006 grew 0.9 % by February adjusted for seasonal variations up to record $1.199 billion. And experts forecast growth of the parameter of 0.4 %.

Thus according to refined data, in February construction spending in the USA was up 1.0 % by January, 2005 instead of 0.8 % as it was informed earlier. And year over year construction spending in the USA was up 8.4 % in March, 2006.

 

As a result, despite proceeding falling of a rate of the American currency we recommend to wait for realization of correction in favor of dollar. We do not exclude that it will happen till the end of this week.

Therefore, expecting new sales of the dollar/franc and dollar/Canadian rate it is necessary while to be outside the market.

 

 

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TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
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EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
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