| USmarket Despite pressure of growing oil prices share indexes remain stable |
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11:47 05/01/2006 |
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On a background of unexpected comments of the Federal reserve head Ben Bernanke on Thursday that FRS was going to wait a little with the further rates increase this summer, the American shares began trade with hike on Friday.
Let's remind that the main reason for such pause, in opinion of FRS Head there can be a reduction of credits affecting economy. Thus Bernanke reminded of that the effect from monetary measures is shown frequently only months later. Key phrase for investors became following Bernanke’s words: "As disbalance of the current account will possibly be removed gradually through any time there is a small risk of sharp change of moods, which can lead to detriment of dollar cost and the prices of other assets".
However then the situation changed - the investors’ anxiety because of IAEA decision about Iran has led to that Dow-Jones index could not overcome key resistance at a level of 11415, and returned to levels of opening of trading session. Let's remind that on April, 28th, 2006 IAEA directed "the Iranian file" to consideration of Security council of the United Nations. Thus the report said that Iran did not stop work on uranium enrichment till April, 28th as that was demanded by the agency, and managed to lead enrichment up to a level of nuclear fuel. Besides Iran did not cooperate with the international inspectors and therefore they could not draw a conclusion about character of the Iranian nuclear program - military or peace. And IAEA does not exclude that Iran receives plutonium from abroad.
It is remarkable but as the report says Iran has proposed to develop the plan of cooperation with ??- IAEA inspectors if this agency controls performance of necessary rules faster than Security Council of the United Nations. However, as preliminary terms of IAEA expectations have already expired, "the Iranian file" is directed to Security Council of the United Nations, which will solve the problem on sanctions concerning Iran. Let's notice that the USA does not also exclude force against Iran, however, t Chinese People's Republic and Russia, having veto right in Security Council, are against any sanctions.
Besides on a background of strengthening of geopolitical risks current economic data could not support the share market. So, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index decreased in April to 87.4 points from 88.9 points in March. Thus experts forecast 89.0 points. We shall also remind that the given indicator is calculated monthly by results of survey of about 500 families. It is remarkable that the index of current conditions in April grew to 109.2 points from 109.1 points in March. And the component of expectations dipped to 73.4 points from 76.0 points. Experts notice that sharp downturn of consumer confidence index in April is caused by a rise in petroleum prices, which were close to record and have strongly hit on the budget of American households.
Another important indicator – Chicago Purchasing Manager Index, reflecting business level in the Middle West of the USA, decreased to 57,2 points in April, 2006 in comparison with 60.4 points in March. We shall remind that value of the indicator above a mark of 50 points means expansion in sector, below - recession. Experts forecast that the index would reduce to 58.5 points. Thus the employment index decreased to 47.2 points in April from 55.6 points in March, new orders index dipped to 60.8 points from 62.2 points, and the price index rose up to 77.2 points from 71.1 points.
One more significant parameter despite its positive could not change the general market’s mood. So, the index of a business climate, counted by New York National Association of Purchasing Managers' index, raised up to 387.2 points in April, 2006 from 378.9 points in March, 2006. Thus the index grows the seventh month in a row. However the average index of current conditions, on the contrary, decreased to 66.5 from 69.1 points in March. And the index of economic expectations for the nearest half of a year reduced to 50,0 points from 70,0 points.
As a result key share indexes have practically returned to levels of opening of trading session on Friday. So, Dow-Jones index of NYSE dipped 2.85 points and was closed at a level 11368.8. NASDAQ index was down 1.78 points and is at a level of 2321.9. S&P 500 index was down 1.43 points and is at a level of 1310.68. And 30-years U.S. Treasury notes’ yield grew 0.012 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 5.179.
We still recommend to wait for descending correction of key share indexes. After its end there are possible purchases of futures for Dow-Jones and S&P 500 indexes. While it is necessary to remain outside the market.
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