Market’s daily review
16:39 05/01/2006

The American currency continues to remain under pressure against the basic currencies.

A dollar exchange rate is influenced negatively by expectations of end of process of interest rates increase in the USA.

Besides, weak economic data over the USA were published on Friday. GDP indicators in the USA for the first quarter, and also University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index for April were below economists’ forecasts.

 

As the US Department of Commerce informed on Friday economic growth in the USA in the first quarter was accelerated, but and has not reached an expected level.

Preliminary value of GDP index in the USA for the first quarter made +4.8 % for a year.

The increase in rates of GDP growth for the first quarter is practically in line with economists’ forecasts at a level of 4.9 %.

In the fourth quarter gross domestic product was only up 1.7 % as it was limited by weak consumer and capital expenses.

Economists say that GDP calculation showed in the fourth quarter worse situation than it was actually while the first quarter actually was not so strong as it was shown.

 

According to the published data of the US Department of Labor in the first quarter manpower costs in the country grew 0.6 % after increase of 0.8 % in the fourth.

It became the minimal gain since the first quarter of 1999 and has not justified forecasts of the analysts, expected value of +0.9 %.

In annual calculation manpower costs increased 2.8 % against indicator of 3.1 % the last quarter.

 

As University of Michigan informed on Friday the US consumer sentiment in April decreased.

So, final value of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April made 87.4 whereas the preliminary April index was equal to 89.2. In March the index made 88.9.

Decrease was more strongly than it was predicted. Economists forecast reduction of the index to 89.0.

 

Chicago Purchasing Manager Index in the USA in April dipped to 57.2 in comparison with 60.4 in March.

Economists expected falling the index only to 58.2.

 

In its turn, rates of the European currencies were supported by statements of FRS Chairman Bernanke, and also economic data in Eurozone and Great Britain.

In his speech at the US Congress Bernanke told that FRS could make a pause in almost two-year-old cycle of monetary policy firming.

Bernanke’s statement affected strongly moods of the market’s participants, who are afraid more and more that ECB will continue to raise its rates when FRS makes a pause in tightening cycle.

 

According to Eurostat data the total consumer price index in Eurozone in April was up 2.4 % in comparison with April, 2005. Economists forecast growth of the index of 2.3 % in April.

In March the given index grew 2.2 %.

 

According to Istat preliminary data the harmonized consumer price index of Italy in April rose 0.9 % m/m and 2.2 % y/y. Growth of the index exceeded analysts’ forecasts.

 

Moods in business circles in Eurozone in April keep improving.

The index of business moods in Eurozone in April grew to 105.3 against 103.6 in March. The indicator achieved a top since December, 2000.

It was expected that the given index in April would make 103.1.

 

The indicator of a business climate in Eurozone for April was also much better than the forecast and made 1.12 against the previous value 0.81.

 

The consumer sentiment index in Great Britain in April also grew.

According to research company Gfk, consumer sentiment index in April made -4 against -7 in March.

Growth of the index was greater than it was expected, economists forecast growth up to –5.

 

Retail sales in Germany in March unexpectedly showed reduction the second month successively.

The sales volumes, adjusted for seasonal variations and inflation, were down 2.7 % after drop of 1.1 % in February.

Economists forecast growth of 0.4 %.

In annual calculation sale reduced 1.2 %.

 

As E#CB informed the index of monetary weight ?3 in the Eurozone has grown in annual calculation on 8.6 % in March against 7.9 % in February.

Economists predicted growth on 8.0 %.

 

Money supply index ?3 in Eurozone has made 8.1 % for three months, including March against 7.7 % revised upwardly for December-February.


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