So, at a weekend the euro/dollar has noted a maximum since May 2005 ?, having reached a level $1.2635. The dollar/franc rate, at last, has pressed through lows of 2006 at a level 1.2555, and has noted new ones near 1.2385. And the dollar/yen rate, not having closed gap of the beginnings of week, has fallen to new lows at Y113.00.

Let's remind that Friday breakout happened on a background of the market’s reaction to IAEA decision about Iran. We shall notice that this decision changed nothing as to intensity of geopolitical relations, but also strengthened expectation of application of sanctions against Iran.

So, on April, 28th, 2006 the International atomic energy agency directed "the Iranian file" to consideration of Security council of the United Nations.

Thus the report said that Iran did not stop work on uranium enrichment till April, 28th as that was demanded by the agency, and managed to lead enrichment up to a level of nuclear fuel.

Besides Iran did not cooperate with the international inspectors and therefore they could not draw a conclusion about character of the Iranian nuclear program - military or peace.

It is remarkable that IAEA does not exclude that Iran receives plutonium from abroad.

At the same time as the report says Iran has proposed to develop the plan of cooperation with ??- IAEA inspectors if this agency controls performance of necessary rules faster than Security Council of the United Nations.

However, as preliminary terms of IAEA expectations have already expired, "the Iranian file" is directed to Security Council of the United Nations, which will solve the problem on sanctions concerning Iran.

Let's notice that the USA does not also exclude force against Iran, however, t Chinese People's Republic and Russia, having veto right in Security Council, are against any sanctions (even economic).

So significant ending of week, and absolute unwillingness of dollar to be adjusted against the basic currencies, define rather eloquently market moods to the American currency.

Let's remind that the first driver of dollar falling this week became market perception of the communique of Ministers of Finance and G7 Central Bankers as a wish of soft dollar devaluation for correction of disbalances in the world economics.

Another factor, which strengthened antidollar moods, was frank comments of the Federal reserve Head Ben Bernanke on Thursday that FRS is not going to increase the rates this summer.

Let's remind that the reason for a similar pause, in Bernanke’s opinion, can be a reduction of credits affecting economy. Thus FRS Head said that the result of monetary measures is shown, as a rule, only months later.

The role of a “trigger” for players became Bernanke’s phrase: "As disbalance of the current account will possibly be removed gradually through any time there is a small risk of sharp change of moods, which can lead to detriment of dollar cost and the prices of other assets".

It is also necessary to notice that on Friday FOMC member Susan S. Bies confirmed a position on the rates, having been stated by her chief earlier.

"I think, Committee, as a whole, agree that we are at that level where we wish to be. However soon we will see new data, and learn how events develop. That is why it is so difficult to tell where we will want to stop", - Bies has summed up.

It is necessary to notice that Friday economic data, even moderately dollar-negative, showed steady economic growth in the USA.

Let's remind that University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index decreased in April to 87.4 points from 88.9 points in March. Thus experts forecast 89.0 points. We shall also remind that the given indicator is calculated monthly by results of survey of about 500 families.

It is remarkable that the index of current conditions in April grew to 109.2 points from 109.1 points in March. And the component of expectations dipped to 73.4 points from 76.0 points.

Experts notice that sharp downturn of consumer confidence index in April is caused by a rise in petroleum prices, which were close to record and have strongly hit on the budget of American households.

Another important indicator – Chicago Purchasing Manager Index, reflecting business level in the Middle West of the USA, decreased to 57,2 points in April, 2006 in comparison with 60.4 points in March. We shall remind that value of the indicator above a mark of 50 points means expansion in sector, below - recession.

Experts forecast that the index would reduce to 58.5 points.

Thus the employment index decreased to 47.2 points in April from 55.6 points in March, new orders index dipped to 60.8 points from 62.2 points, and the price index rose up to 77.2 points from 71.1 points.

It is remarkable that another significant parameter - the index of a business climate, counted by New York National Association of Purchasing Managers' index, raised up to 387.2 points in April, 2006 from 378.9 points in March, 2006. Thus the index grows the seventh month in a row.

However the average index of current conditions, on the contrary, decreased to 66.5 from 69.1 points in March. And the index of economic expectations for the nearest half of a year reduced to 50,0 points from 70,0 points.

The key indicator of economy - gross domestic product of the USA for the first quarter, according to preliminary data, in the first quarter grew 4.8 % to the similar period of 2005 that is almost in line with analysts’ forecasts (4.9 %).

As a result an annual gain of gross domestic product in the first quarter became maximal for more than two years. In economists’ opinion a major factor of economic growth became consumer expenses and investments.

And present growth was partially affected by weak fourth quarter, but in a greater degree it is connected with that the economy has really strengthened. Heads of corporations see that the consumer confidence is very high, and high energy prices do not render so negative influence any more. Therefore they make much larger expenses and employ new workers with greater ease.

Let's notice that consumer expenses, making about 70 % of total expenses, were up 5.5 % that became a record since third quarter of 2003.

As a result we recommend to wait for small correction in favor of dollar. For last two weeks the dollar/franc rate has lost almost 600 points, and dollar/canadian rate - 350 points. Thus on last Thursday, on a background of Bernanke’s comments large players sustained damages.

The probability of correction in favor of dollar is still kept. Realization of this correction will allow us to consider new sales of rates. While similar steps are fraught with high trading risks. Therefore we recommend to keep a waiting position.