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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. After strong movements at weekend market is dull.

14:20 05/01/2006

Today quotations is consolidated at the levels, achieved at the end of the last week.

 

After strong dollar-bear movements on Thursday and Friday it looks as if traders take a short-term pause. Friday fundamental reports on the USA were regarded by the market not in favor of dollar despite positive US GDP data for 1 quarter.

 

GDP: Gross Domestic Product data of Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce showed increase in rates of economic growth in 1 quarter, in comparison with 4 quarter of` 2005 when rates of growth were the lowest - 1,7 % of a gain. The increase in rates of GDP growth for 1 quarter is practically in line with economists’ forecasts at a level of 4,8 %, forecasts were 4.9 %. However the market expected this value.

 

After indicators of 3 quarter for 2003 when GDP growth showed more than 7 % for a quarter, yesterday's data for 1 quarter of 2006 showed the strongest GDP growth.

Analysts consider that GDP growth in many respects was due to hike of consumer demand. Personal consumption grew 5,5 % in 1 quarter in comparison with weak data of 4 quarter - 0,9 % of a gain. The strongest growth of a consumer demand showed durable with operation life more than three years - 21 % of a gain.

 

Business investments increased 14 %, the equipment and software - 16 %.

 

However Chain Deflator-Adv, where gross domestic product is estimated, raised 3,3 %, that is above expected 2,7 %, but below the previous value of 4 quarter - 3,5 %.

 

Analysts expect the further growth of economy in 2006 as FRS moves from neutral-constraining policy, when for 2 years federal funds rate was increased, to a policy stimulating economic growth. According to FRS plan for 2006 growth will to be carried out on the basis of reduction of consumer expenses and stimulation of business investments. Moreover FRS is concerned by the significant inflationary risks connected with a rise in energy prices.

 

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at the end April decreased to 87.4 against 89.2 at the beginning of month. In March the index made 88.9.

Data were worse than the expectations. Economists forecast drop in the index to 89.0. At the end of April the index of expectations has been revised downwardly to 73.4 against a preliminary estimation of 75.1. It is a minimum level since November. The index in March made 76.0

The index of current conditions has been revised downwardly  to 109.2 against 111.1 at the beginning of month. The index made 109.1 in March.

 

The business confidence index according to Chicago Purchasing Manager Index, was worse than expectations, was down 3,2 points to 57,2. Analysts expected reduction to 60,4.

 

Technical picture:

Within last decade of April the euro and pound sterling quotation against the dollar are at new basic levels.

The pound sterling reached a level 1,8250, and the euro overcame a psychological level, an annual maximum 1,2580.

It is most likely that levels 1,2580-1, 1,2760 will be a new zone of stability, a currency corridor within the limits of which currency will be during summer season. A similar currency corridor on pound sterling - 1,8250-1,8460.

As to the opened orders:

On Friday there were given recommendations:

«Euro and pound sterling quotations are near the next serious resistance level of 1,2580 on euro and 1,8100 on pound sterling.

Correction is probable from the technical point of view. Therefore it is necessary to protect orders on opened Longs, with the long-term purposes, having moved stop at profit-taking and having moved the purposes to following levels of resistance so dollar-negative news block is not excluded.

On euro stop at 1,2450, to move the purpose at 1,2760.

On pound sterling the purpose remains without changes - stop in make-out, the purpose 1,8350.».

 

Let's remind:

On pound sterling the order was opened from 1, 7950,

On this order it is possible to close at a current rate at 1,8250.

On euro: the order was opened from 1,2400, stop can be moved at 1,2510, the purpose at 1,2760 is kept.

 

 

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