In spite of the fact that from the very beginning of a week the market was firmly against the dollar and persistently ignored positive fundamental releases over the USA Ben Bernanke's phrase in the US Congress that at the nearest FOMC meeting FRS can make a pause in the firming cycle put traders in a shock.

Dollar falling within an hour after this news made more than 100 points to euro.

The first a part of Ben Bernanke’s report has noted successes of the American economy for last two years, the second part of the report of FRS Board Chairman concerning current position in the US economy was rather far from optimism.

He has noted that despite confident economic development it is still under pressure of long-term risks. According to FRS estimations federal budget deficit will grow because of increasing expenses on social programs. On the other hand, slower rate of growth of a labour market can reduce rate of business growth.

Then Ben Bernanke has noted that the risks, directed to the objects, will not be completely balanced, in future the Committee can decide not to make any steps at one or several meetings to win more time to get and estimate the coming information", Bernanke has declared.

The committee can make a decision not to make any steps on the rate increase during one and even more FOMC meetings. However to soften these statements B.Bernanke has noted that the pause in FOMC actions is not unusual act, and does not exclude monetary policy tightening in the further if there are corresponding circumstances.

It is necessary to tell that yesterday was not the best for the dollar. If at the European session there was observed flat, dollar bears prevailed at the American session.

Before FED Chairman speech the market started to warm up on dollar-negative news.

Jobless claims data for a week, ended on April, 21^st were worse than the previous data, and worse than predicted values. According to the report Initial claims were up 11 000 to 315 000 adjusted for seasonal variations.

Help-Wanted Index for March has unexpectedly decreased from 39 in February to 38.

Today there is also expected interesting day in the news plan. The block of significant news over the USA is planned.

The GDP report of Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce will be issued: preliminary data. Significant growth of this parameter up to 4,9 % in 1 quarter of current year is expected. We shall remind that in 4 quarter 2005 sharp recession of GDP gain, connected with consequences of a series of hurricanes in August-September of the last year, was observed.

Consumer and business confidence indexes for April of current year are also expected.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, growth of consumer confidence on 0,2 points is expected.

The business confidence index, according to ISM, is expected with small downturn on 1,9 points.

However as a whole today the background of expectations in the market has some positive concerning dollar. Therefore today serious correction of uptrend on euro and pound sterling is possible, after impulsive falling of dollar quotations correction can be even more significant if news is dollar-positive and better than the market’s expectations.

Technical picture.

Euro and pound sterling quotations are near the next serious resistance level of 1,2580 on euro and 1,8100 on pound sterling.

Correction is probable from the technical point of view. Therefore it is necessary to protect orders on opened Longs, with the long-term purposes, having moved stop at profit-taking and having moved the purposes to following levels of resistance so dollar-negative news block is not excluded.

On euro stop at 1,2450, to move the purpose at 1,2760.

On pound sterling the purpose remains without changes - stop in make-out, the purpose 1,8350.