USmarket Expectation of pause in cycle of FRS rates increase supports stock indexes
11:47 04/27/2006

On a background of correctional drop in oil quotations and positive quarter results of corporations the American shares opened at constant levels yesterday.

 

Let's remind that oil prices fell below a mark of $ 72 for barrel yesterday after the issue of data about energy stocks in the USA, which showed smaller than it was expected reduction of petroleum stocks, but can not test yet the important support in the form of the previous top a little above a mark of $ 71 for barrel.

Let's notice that in opinion of the majority of analysts reduction under this level will mean the descending tendency in the market.

So, June contracts for American light oil by 9.17 Moscow time traded at a level $71.85 for barrel in system of electronic tenders ACCESS NYMEX. We shall notice that on Wednesday oil quotations were down more than a dollar to $71.60. As a result cost of "oil" dipped 5 % from a record maximum of $75.35, reached the last week.

As a result oil quotations dipped 5 % from historical peaks.

Let's remind that now oil traders wait for Friday publication of the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency, where the estimation how much Iranian actions correspond to requirements to stop uranium enrichment will be given.

 

Besides indexes were supported by Boeing quarter results. We shall remind that the first quarter the net profit of American aerospace corporation Boeing grew 29 % owing to record growth of plane sales for last five years up to $692 million, or 88 cents per a share from $535 million, or 66 cents per a share a year earlier.

And sales were up 12 % to $14.3 billion. Experts forecast 76 cents per a share. Plane sales rose 40 % the last quarter that is the highest rate since 2001, up to 98 units for a total sum about $10 billion.

The volume of orders, according to data of the end of March, made $146.1 billion. The competitor of the company Airbus made $144.9 billion. Thus, for the first time for five years the American company has surpassed the basic competitor on this parameter.

 

Let's also notice that key indexes were supported by yesterday's data, which showed that Federal reserve system is justified less for continuation of aggressive increase of a level of interest rates in the USA.

Let's remind that Durable Orders index in the USA made +6.1 % for March, at the forecast of +1.5 %, and the previous value of +2.6 %. Thus Durable Orders data for February have been revised upwardly 3.4 %.

Experts notice that growth of durable orders in the USA in March is three times more than the experts’ forecasts due to increase in the companies’ investments in modernization of production facilities.

The companies use their growing profits on modernization of the equipment and expansion of production facilities, increase production and raise durable goods orders to fill up warehouses, which inventories reduced almost up to record-breaking low parameters.

It is remarkable that less Transport orders, which service life is not less than three years, were up 2.8 % in March in comparison with falling of 1.1 % in February. We shall remind that earlier it was informed on decrease of 1.2 %in February.

Less Defense orders were up 6.0 % in monthly calculation in comparison with growth of 1.1 % in February.

Computers and electronics orders grew 7.5 % that became the maximal increase since September, 2004. Equipment orders were up 7.5 % in March after decrease of 7.7 % in February.

 

Another indicator - New Home Sales in the USA made 1213 thousand for March, at the forecast 1140 thousand, and the previous value 1066 thousand.

In experts’ opinion growth of a parameter is based on the increased demand on cheap habitation. Thus employment and consumer incomes growth, even despite increase in mortgage lending rates, supports housing market.

Let's remind that New Home Sales make 15 % of the total turnover of the US housing market.

 

Besides indexes were supported by yesterday's publication of economic review of the US Federal reserve system - Beige Book - which showed that despite prompt growth of energy expenses, rise in goods prices and wage- push have not been observed, it also reduces probability of the further rates increase in the USA.

 

Let's remind that on the eve Chicago FRB President Michael Moskou declared that the Federal Reserve learned to constrain inflationary pressure optimally.

In the annual report on the bank’s activity for 2005, placed on Chicago FRB site, Moskou noted "now inflationary expectations are controlled well".

 

As a result Dow-Jones index of New York stock exchange grew 71.24 points and was closed at a level 11354.49. NASDAQ index was up 3.33 points and is at a level 2333.63. S&P 500 rose 3.67 points and is at a level 1305.41.

And 30-years 10-year U.S. Treasury notes’ yield was up 0.024 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 5.178.

 

Despite last growth of key share indexes we recommend to wait for realization of descending correction of indexes. Only after its end there are possible new purchases of indexes futures.

While it is necessary to keep a waiting position.

 

 


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