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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Basic currency pairs while remain in ranges, and the key release of week will be published only on Friday...

18:11 04/03/2006

So, despite a series positive data for the dollar on Friday, the American currency again could not take advantage and overcome key resistance levels.

 

Let's remind that American consumer sentiment index, calculated by Michigan University, grew up to 88.9 points in March. Preliminary value made 86.7 points.

Thus experts forecast growth of the indicator up to 87 points.

Let's remind that this indicator is one of key economic indicators, and its value is calculated on the basis of the data of telephone poll of more than 500 consumers.

In economists’ opinion growth of the index in March has been caused first of all by rise of employment and wages that, in turn, has led to increase in expenses of the American consumers. We shall notice that 70 % of the US gross domestic product falls to a share of the population expenses.

 

Another important parameter - Chicago Purchasing Managers Association index, reflecting business level in the Middle West of the USA, rose up to 60.4 points in March, 2006 in comparison with 54.9 points in February.

Let's remind that experts forecast that the index would grow up to 57 points.

Thus the employment index in March went up to 55.6 points from 54.9 points in February, the new orders index raised up to 62.2 points from 54.9 points, and the price index decreased to 71.1 points from 71.6 points.

The value of the index above a mark of 50 points means expansion in a sector, below - recession.

As a result unexpectedly high value of this indicator gives the basis to assume that value of ISM index, which publication is planned this week, will be also positive.

 

Thus the market players have paid attention to that factory orders in the USA, despite low levels, rose in comparison with the last month.

Let's remind that according to the US Department of Commerce volume of factory orders was up 0.2 % in monthly calculation up to $401.9 billion in February.

Experts expected growth of the indicator on 1.3 % after, according to the revised data, in January orders fell to 3.9 %. We shall notice that it was originally informed on reduction of the indicator on 3.5 %.

Durable orders, which service life is more than three years, were up 2.7 % after a fall on 8.9 % in January. More than half of total amount of factory orders fall to their share.

Undurable orders: chemical, paper, textile and pharmaceutical products, dipped 12 % in February.

 

Today the stock gamblers will have an opportunity to compare parameters on business index in the euro – countries, as a whole in Europe (12), and in the USA.

Let's remind that business index in Italy made 55.5 for March, at the forecast 55.5 and the previous value 55.1.

Index of business activity in France for March, at the forecast 53.0 and the previous value 52.2; has made 54.6.

The business index in Great Britain made 50.8 for March. And the previous value is revised from 51.7 to 51.5.

And business index in Europe (12) made 56.1 for March, at the previous value 54.5.

 

Later, at 14:00 GMT the publication of ISM business index in the USA for March is planned. We shall remind that the forecast of value is equal to 57.5, and the previous value was equaled 56.7.

At the same time the index of construction spending in the USA for February will be released. We shall remind that the forecast is +0.4 %, and the previous value was +0.2 %.

 

Despite the importance of forthcoming releases, key event of week will be the US labor market survey for March. We shall remind that according to economists’ forecast new workplaces will make about 200 thousand, and the unemployment rate will be at a mark of 4.8 %.

 

While we recommend to keep a waiting position on both pairs. Uncertainty of a situation is kept, and there is a probability that this week the market will choose the further direction.

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
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