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Forex · News · USMarket

NEWS / USMarket

USmarket New purchases of futures will be possible after end of indexes’ correction

11:47 03/30/2006

After emotional reaction of the majority of investors in response to FOMC rigid comments on the inflationary pressure, shown in slump of key stock indexes, with opening of trading day on Wednesday the American shares grew.

 

So, in focus of investors’ attention there were shares of a leading world motor-car manufacturer and a component of Dow index - General Motors Corp. We shall remind that the financial division of the company warned that sale of a control share holding was not yet the settled question.

As a result of GM papers were down 3.0 % in the first minutes of the tenders. GM negotiates with potential partners for sale of a control stock of financial division of General Motors Acceptance Corp. to a group of investors of GMAC Commercial Holding Corp to restore a credit rating of division up to the investment level.

 

In experts’ opinion optimism of the market players is connected with that rates of corporate profits growth can stand increase of interest rates. We shall remind that the analysis of dynamics of the futures for the federal funds rate shows that the market now is convinced that interest rates in the USA will raise up to 5 % already after FRS May meeting.

It is remarkable that, for example, experts at Barclays Capital have revised their forecasts concerning a level of FRS interest rate.

So, if earlier they assumed that after achievement of a level of 4.75 % per annum FOMC would take a pause in a cycle of rates increase and would continue to raise rates up to a level of 5.5 % per annum only in 2007 now they expect growth of the rate up to 5.5 % per annum already by the end of a current year.

Moreover, experts at Barclays Capital suppose that forthcoming statistical data will show stronger than it was expected earlier economic growth in the USA, and also decrease in unemployment rate to 4.5 %.

 

Thus some analysts point out that forthcoming FOMC decisions will be connected directly with current statistics. So, if current economic indicators are positive the rate will likely be raised. Besides by estimations of experts the tendency of excess of the companies’ profits above forecasts remains most likely in force till the end of the first half of the year.

 

The market is also supported by expectation that GDP data in the fourth quarter and consumer expenses in February, which publication is planned today and tomorrow, will confirm stable economic growth.

 

Stock indexes are under pressure of a situation in the fuel market. So, after the publication of stocks data oil quotations updated local tops though later decreased below opening levels.

According to data of the US Department of Energy oil stocks in the USA were up 2.1 million barrels to 340.7 million barrels for a week, ended on March, 24th, 2006. Thus petroleum stocks were down 5.4 million barrels to 216.2 million barrels. Distillates stocks were down 2.5 million barrels to 124.2 million barrels, thus stocks of oven fuel were down 2.1 million barrels to 46.1 million barrels.

Let's also notice that experts forecast growth of oil stocks in the USA on 800.000 barrels last week, drop in petroleum stocks on 1.3 million barrels and reduction of distillates stocks on 1.4 million barrels.

As a result today the oil price in New York has reached a mark of 66.50 dollars for barrel.

 

As a result Dow-Jones index of New York stock exchange was up 64.50 points and is at a level 11219.04. NASDAQ index grew on 32.18 points and is at a level 2336.64. S&P 500 index was up 9.26 points and is at a level 1302.49.

And the US 30-years state bonds’ yield rose 0.048 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 4.841.

 

We recommend to the players, who kept purchases of Dow-Jones index futures after promulgation of the communique on Tuesday, to close them at current levels. The further decisions on purchases of futures will be made after the end of already ripened descending correction of key indexes.

 

 

 

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