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Forex · News · USMarket

NEWS / USMarket

USmarket Before FOMC meeting on rates key indexes kept stability, but they slumped after publication of the communique

11:47 03/29/2006

Yesterday on a background of expectations of the decision on rates in FOMC meeting, investors did not hurry up with purchases.

As a result quotations of key stock indexes were stuck in a narrow trading ranges.

 

Let's notice that investors expect that FRS will raise the federal funds rate by 25 points up to 4.75% per annum.

 

On this background of Eli Lilly paper fell in price on $1.57 up to $57.1, Bloomberg informs. It is remarkable that the expert at Merrill Lynch Davil Risinger has lowered recommendations for papers of the pharmaceutical company up to a "neutral" level from "to buy".

Tiffany papers have lost $1.11 to $37.4. The company forecast profit at a rate of 27 cents per a share in the first financial quarter whereas analysts expect 30 cents.

 

"This is the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting under Ben Bernanke's direction, therefore we are interested in decisions to be made - Chris Wolf from Dover Management LLC. says - We would not like to hear hints on the further increase of the rate up to 5.5 % or 5.75 %.”

 

Let's remind that the majority of economists consider that this year the situation on Wall Street while is optimistical unlike a year ago.

For the first 3 months of a current year indicators of a gain of the basic indexes has already exceeded considerably "successes" of 2005.

More and more investors invest in shares, hoping, that growth will proceed, however some analysts consider that such optimism is unjustified.

As a proof of the analysts’ opinion give an example - usually 2 and 3 quarters of the second year of a presidential term give the worst results.

On the average for these 2 quarters the S&P 500 index were down 2-2.2 %. Now there comes the 2 quarter of the second year of Georges Bush government after re-election.

If it happens the US market will again lag behind other markets of the world. And it can be caused by some slowdown of economy and rates of growth of the companies’ profits.

Thus, however, experts do not believe that other markets will continue rally as many of them are in area of long-term tops.

 

The situation in energy market also continues to put pressure upon stock indexes. However we shall notice that after a hike of oil prices on Tuesday, quotations were stabilized in area of $65.80 / $66.10 for barrel.

Let's remind that yesterday May futures for oil WTI were up $1.91 to $66.07 for barrel.

Investors are afraid of petroleum deficit in the USA, it is the main reason of yesterday's rally. The market is also concerned by strike in France and a situation in Nigeria and Iraq.

Besides data on energy stocks in the USA will be published today. According to forecasts, oil stocks could have grown on 800.000 barrels, and petroleum and distillates stocks fell to 1.1 million barrels.

 

Already by the end of trading session on Wall Street it became known that as a result of the next FOMC meeting on which the level of the basic interest rates was discussed, as well as the majority of economists expected the federal funds rate increased by 0.25 % up to a level of 4.75 %, maximal since April, 2001.

It became the fifteenth increase of the rate in the USA since June, 30th, 2004.

The statement, which was made at the end of the meeting, says that the decision on increase of the rate was accepted unanimously.

It has been told that for prevention of possible undesirable growth of inflation there can be a necessity to proceed a process of rates increase.

 

Right after the publication of the FOMC document Dow-Jones index of New York stock exchange was down 82.12 points and is at a level 11167.99. NASDAQ index was down 10.72 points and is at a level 2304.86. S&P 500 index was down 7.19 points and is at a level 1294.42.

And the US 30-years state bonds’ yield rose 0.070 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 4.797.

 

We recommend while keeping a waiting position. The further purchases of futures for key indexes will be possible after the end of a descending correction.

 

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