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Forex · News · USMarket

NEWS / USMarket

USmarket Expecting tomorrow's FOMC meeting, investors do not hurry up with opening new positions

11:47 03/27/2006

On a background of investors’ optimism after the message that Google Inc. will be added in calculation of S&P 500 index. Shares of the company will be added in calculation of S&P 500 Index on March, 31st shares on Wall Street opened with growth.

 

Lucent Technologies Inc. papers also grew at opening after the message on negotiations with French Alcatel about possible influence.

 

From the beginning of the last week in focus of investors’ attention there is approaching FOMC meeting. We shall notice that first of all investors are anxious of the comments of FRS representatives after it raises the refinancing rate up to 4.75 % per annum.

These doubts are caused by a lot of the reasons. First, FRS is under a new chairman, and investors do not yet know the style of Bernanke’s dialogue with the markets in contrary to Alan Greenspan, who could "start talking" everybody so that experts tried to understand and explain to investors what FRS head really wants.

Secondly, judging by inflation of consumer expenses, rates in the USA have already reached a neutral level if have not exceeded it.

Thirdly, in a lobby of Central banks there is an idea about shift of reference points in monetary policy and change from a level of the rate to inflation rate as a final goal of change of volume of the monetary offer in economy. This method of monetary policy was applied in the USA in the past.

And fourthly, rates increase in the USA, apparently, starts to bear its first fruits: instead of steady restoration in all branches last year, this year separate sectors of economy began to show the mixed picture. In particular, the sector of the real estate where FRS is afraid of sharp falling of prices that can affect cost of financial assets and destabilize the whole situation in economy.

 

It is expected that because of this uncertainty the first reaction to FRS comments in the stock exchange can be very emotional, therefore movements of indexes can be volatile.

But even if comments contain a hint on increase of the rate in May, it is not excluded that the market will react cool, having named then the decision expected, and will continue upward movement.

 

Let's notice that after numerous statements of Fed representatives about the importance of current economic indicators in decision-making on rates, the market was focused on coming statistics.

 

So, for example, the reasons of last sharp movements were data existing home sales (on Thursday) and new home sales (on Friday) in the USA for February.

Let's remind that unlike Thursday data which have exceeded analysts’ expectations, Friday data were much more weaker than the forecasts.

So, the new home sales in the USA made 1080 thousand for February, at the forecast 1200 thousand. And the previous value has been revised from 1233000 up to 1207000.

As a result the indicator was not only considerably below the forecast, but also reached a minimum level almost for three years. And decrease in sales volumes in comparison with the previous value is record for last nine years.

 

It is remarkable that thus the market regarded with optimism positive data on durable orders. Let's remind that durable orders index in the USA made +2.6 % for February, at the forecast of +2.0 %. Thus the previous value has also been upwardly from -9.9 % to -8.9 %.

Experts notice that at a positive of the total indicator the less transport component of the index  was unexpectedly negative - after growth on 1.6 % in January, fell 1.3 %. We shall notice that earlier it was informed on growth on 0.9 % in January.

 

As a result Dow-Jones index of New York stock exchange was up 9.68 points and was closed at a level 11279.97. NASDASQ index was up 12.67 points and is at a level 2312.82. S&P 500 index was up 1.28 points and is at a level 1302.95.

And the US 30-years state bonds’ yield fell 0.060 in comparison with the previous closing and makes 4.695.

 

We recommend keeping purchases of Dows-Jones index futures, opened earlier from a level 10690.

Thus the purposes of growth of the index hold good.

 

 

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