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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Data continue to support dollar, however on Friday the probability of correction remain...

16:01 03/24/2006

So, surprise data about existing home sales in the USA for the February, testifying to high investors’ activity in housing market, have led to the dollar hike against all basic currencies. As a result euro/dollar slumped at the American session yesterday, on three quarters having offset growth of the currency last week. And the dollar/franc rate came almost closely to key resistance at 1.3230-40.

 

Primary factor of a dollar exchange rate support still remains positive expectation of results of the nearest meeting of Federal Open Market Committee on March, 28th.

Let's remind that stability of last data, Ben Bernanke's last comments, and also steady growth of the US state bonds’ yield, give the basis to the stock gamblers to assume that the cycle of FRS rates increase of will be continued.

Let's notice that futures point out 90-percentage probability of rates rise in two following Fed meetings on March, 28th and on May, 10th.

 

Thus the majority of experts suppose that text of the final communique after the meeting on Tuesday will be aggressive and contain the extremely positive view on economy that can render an additional impulse of the dollar rise against other basic currencies.

 

So we shall remind that existing home sales in the USA made 6.91 million for February, at the forecast of 6.40 million. And the previous value has been revised from 6.56 up to 6.57 million.

As a result the sales volume was not only considerably above than the expected level, but also growth of the indicator is observed for the first time since September of the last year.

 

Another indicator, in spite of the fact that it was little bit worse than the forecasts, reached a minimum level since February, 24th. We shall remind that jobless claims in the USA made 302000for a week by March, 18th, at the forecast of 295000. And previous value has been revised from 309000 up to 313000.

 

Yesterday's data on the strongest economy of Europe (12) also could not support the further growth of euro.

Let's remind that a consumer price index of Brandenburg in Germany for March made +0.1 % for a month, +2.1 % for a year, at the forecast of +0.1 % for a month, and the previous value of +0.4 % for a month, +2.4 % for a year.

And a consumer price index of Bavaria in Germany for March made 0.0 % for a month, +2.0 % for a year, at the forecast of +0.1 % for a month, and the previous value of +0.4 % for a month, +2.3 % for a year.

 

Today in focus of the market’s attention there will be publications of durable orders index in the USA for February at 13:30 GMT. We shall remind, that the forecast is +2.0 %, and the previous value was -9.9 %.

And later, at 15:00 GMT the publication of new home sales data in the USA for February is planned. The forecast is 1 200 000, and the previous value 1 233 000.

 

It is obvious, that at support the stated above indicators the dollar will proceed its victorious climb, however weakness of these indicators can return it in a yesterday's range. The market has not yet determined with the further direction of movement and so reaction to coming data remains nervous and significant.

On this background trading risks increase noticeably, therefore we suggest while to keep a waiting position.

 

 

 

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19/12 21.15
TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
USD/CAD1.00521.0056
EUR/GBP0.71920.7194
EUR/CHF1.65951.6599
EUR/JPY162.7900162.8300
GBP/JPY226.3000226.3600
GBP/CHF2.30702.3080
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