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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Market feels doubts...

15:36 03/21/2006

So, comments of FRS Head Bernanke, contrary to expectations of the market players, have been more positive, and as a result have supported the dollar.

 

Let's remind that FRS Head has noticed a necessity of higher than usually short-term interest rates if low long-term rates reflect reduction of the long-term bonds’ premium.

 

As for huge current account deficit in the USA he has told that this problem takes place not only in the USA, but it should be solved.

Thus Bernanke told that the downturn of the housing market in the USA does not give the bases for doubts in economic growth.

Let's notice that as a result the market has reacted the dollar rise to Bernanke’s speech. However experts notice that the basic conclusions can be made only on results of FRS meeting on rates on March, 28th.

Comments after this meeting will allow assuming the further Federal Reserve steps.

 

The main positive of Bernanke’s speech, in analysts’ opinion, were his statements that absence of growth of curve of bonds’ yield in the given situation does not make a threat for a national economy. And the probability of strong yield’s decline, in Bernanke’s opinion, is minimal.

 

As a result, in opinion of the majority of experts now the market will again concentrate on current economic indicators. We shall remind that if the next rate increase by 0,25 % in FOMC meeting does not raise anybody’s doubts concerning FRS decision in May experts’ opinions divided.

 

Let's also remind that the index of leading economic indicators of the USA, which is calculated on several parameters, such as average workweek, initial jobless claims, consumer goods orders, building permits, equity value, consumers’ expectations, etc., was down 0.2 points in February, 2006 from a January level up to 139.0 points.

The experts forecast reduction of the index on 0.3 %.

Besides in January the index growth has been revised from 1.1 points up to 0.5 points by December, 2005.

In experts’ opinion, considering advancing character of the given indicator, drop in the index of leading economic indicators in February means probability of slowdown of rates of the US economic growth in the second half of 2006.

Economists consider the main reasons of drop in the index building permits decline, growth of jobless claims, and also slowdown of rates of consumer prices growth in February.

 

Another factor of influence on a situation in Forex was the Asian currencies. We shall notice that growth of the Chinese currency rate continues to support the Japanese yen, which yesterday in the American session strengthened against the dollar on more than a figure, up to a level of 115.50 and though later the pair recovered its losses completely, experts do not exclude that falling of a rate can renew soon.

Let's notice, that yesterday the representative of Bank of Japan declared that the level of interest rates in Japan can be soon raised.

 

Let's remind, that today at 13:30 GMT will be released:

- Producer price index in the USA for February. The forecast -0.3 % for a month, the previous value +0.3 % for a month, +5.7 % for a year;

- Producer price index except for food and energy prices in the USA for February. The forecast +0.1 % for a month, the previous value +0.4 % for a month, +1.5 % for a year.

 

As a whole the situation is still uncertain. Today the further growth of the single European currency should not be excluded in case of weakness of producer price data. While it is necessary to keep a waiting position.

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TickerBidAsk
USD/CHF1.15601.1562
GBP/USD1.99541.9956
USD/JPY113.4100113.4300
EUR/USD1.43521.4354
AUD/USD0.85770.8581
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