Yesterday correction against the dollar, caused by weak fundamental data on retail sales and current account deficit over the USA, proceeded.

Yesterday the balance of moods on FOREX swung to euro despite positive data in the USA. According to the TICS report  - net foreign purchases of the US long-term securities made $66.0 billion in January vs. $53.8 billion in December. It is up 2,8 % than the expected values - experts expected foreign purchases of $64,8 billion.

Data of the Export/Import Prices report of the US Department of Labor showed positive for the US economy dynamics of this ratio. For the first time for last year the curve of growth of the exported goods seem above a curve of a rise in prices of the imported goods in a home market.

The basic indicators of this report:

The import prices index in February was down -0,5 %, vs. growth of 7,4 % in January, the indicator excepting petroleum prices also went down 0,5 % against growth of 1,8 % in January.

The export prices index remained constant at a level of 2,6 %, and the import prices index except for agricultural sector was up 0,1 % against growth of 0,7 % in January.

Despite the general positive of the export-import prices data the market was anxious about the fact of drop in prices with the Asian countries, which import share in the USA grows forwardly. Import prices with Japan dipped -1 %, with China -0,2 %, with other developed countries of the Southeast Asia 2 %.

The basic rise of import prices is basically due to the countries of the American continent-Canada and the countries of Latin America - 9 % of Canada import and 15 % from the countries of South America. The index of import prices with the EU countries was up 3 % in February.

Despite the general positive tone of yesterday's news - the prevailing market mood is not in favor of the dollar. Among exchange experts there is a firm opinion on a delay of a cycle of FRS rates increase.

This confidence is based on that rates economic growth have a little come off from 5 % to 4,5 % on results of the 4 quarter, 2005.

The market’s anxiety is also caused by the fact that despite investment rise in February was above predicted values, it does not override a record trade balance deficiency, according to last data of Department of Commerce.

Technical picture. Euro quotations again test a zone of resistance levels of 1,2070-1,2100, after deep recoil to support levels of 1,1850.

Today all market’s attention will be focused on consumer price index, CPI is one of the most important indicators of inflation. The main problem to face investors whether FRS will continue a series of rates increases. If CPI is below the predicted values - this fact will strengthen the market in opinion on FRS shift from tough monetary policy to more liberal, that, in turn, should weaken the dollar.

The recommendations given yesterday remain without changes: But But the resistance zone of 1,2070-1,2100 is significant for a current trend; break out of this level becomes a good application for continuation of uptrend. From these levels there are possible postponed euro Longs with the purposes - 1,2140 the first and 1,2245 - perspective. Stop is not closer than 100 points, accordingly.