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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Weak data of US current balance have catalyzed dollar falling.

11:47 03/14/2006

Today has been noted by the dollar falling both at the European and American sessions.

 

The catalyst of falling became comments on results of the summit of Ministers of Finance of 12 leading EU countries.

 

At press-conference the head of Eurogroup of Ministers of Finance ?12 - Luxembourg Minister of Finance of Jean Claude Junker has expressed his consent with a position of the European Central bank about prospects of the further rate increase, which is based on production growth in Eurozone and way out of stagnation of the leading European countries.

 

Junker has also let know that the Eurogroup supports the decision of Eurocommission to start a procedure against excessive deficit in Germany and to give Germany time till 2007 to reduce excessive budgeted deficit.

 

Joakin Almuniya from EU Commission on Economic Problems has declared that the group agreed to analyze the housing market in ?-12 on approaching boom of the housing prices in some countries.

 

Then, already at the American session, the European currencies were supported against dollar by negative data on the US fundamental indicators.

 

According to Department of Commerce Current Account for 4 quarter in the USA increased more than was predicted, having reached a record value of $224.9 billion that was spurred by growing deficit of trade balance, which can grow even more this year.

Current Account is considered as most total indicator of trade as it includes remittances  and the income from investments. For 2005 deficit made $804.9 billion that is a historical record.

 

Leading expert exchange agencies are anxious about increase in this value, streams of investments counterbalances growing deficiencies of the USA. Therefore the USA is in severe constraints of necessity of maintenance of constant growth of manufacture on the one hand and a high consumer demand on the other hand. And the slightest doubts in this can cause drop in a stream of investments that will affect falling of an exchange rate of the USA.

 

The retail sales falling in February has not added optimism to dollar gamblers. According to Department of Commerce on Retail Sales report - sales volumes showed decline of indicators on 1,3 % against growth on 2,9 % in January. Retail sales, excluding automobiles, also showed sharp dip of these indicators up to -0,4 % against growth up to +2,6 % in January.

 

Technical picture. The euro has broken out the top border of a currency range with width of 100 points and has been corrected at a following level of support - while this movement is considered as correctional, up to a significant level of resistance at a level of 1,2100. While we remain outside of the market.

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