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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Positions of European currencies and dollar are poised, chances are 50 to 50.

11:47 03/13/2006

Varied fundamental data have kept eurodollar quotations within the limits of a firm currency corridor.

 

On Friday February report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor showed a little varied data on fundamental index - the Employment Report . The compound segment of the index, nonfarm payrolls, showed growth in February against January data. However another important segment of the index - Unemployment Rate - showed growth of this value.

 

Indicators of nonfarm payrolls show quite good dynamics of growth during three months. Growth of data has been observing since November of the last year.

February data showed increase of workplaces up to 243 KB that is above the similar January indicators and above the predicted values. On the other hand Unemployment Rate grew in February after decline within 2 months in a row. This circumstance has offset workplaces’ positive influences on dollar of data.

 

Main data of the report:

Growth of February nonfarm payrolls 243 KB, unemployment rate on 4.8 %, the income on 0.3 %, workweek 33.7 hours. Nonfarm Payrolls: Above expectations, from revised downwardly data for January - 170 KB (from 193 KB) up to 243 K.

 

Industrial sector - reduction of workplaces on 1?. The leader of growth of workplaces became business and medical services. Private payrolls in service sector were up 160 KB in February. Leadership in education/health and business services.

 

The governmental payrolls were up 38 KB after the revised cut on 31K in January. Average workweek 33,7 in February from 33,8 it most likely became result of cold weather. The number of working hours in economy fell to 0,1 %. FRS warns that growth of percent of unemployment ratio can lead to growth of inflation up to 5 % of a target barrier, it makes increase of federal funds rate more probable at the following FOMC meeting.

 

The dollar has been under pressure after an issue of the Treasury budget report

 

Deficit of the state budget in the USA in February made 119,20 billion dollars that is a record-breaking indicator of deficit for a month. Nevertheless, this indicator was a little bit less than the forecast. The report of the US Department of Finance, published on Friday, confirms it.

 

Deficit of the budget of the US federal government in February was up 5 % in comparison with  the same period of the last year, according to the monthly budget report. Proficiency of the budget for January was not revised and made 20,99 billion dollars.

 

Usually in February the US government bear great costs, and February indicator of deficit is usually big. It reflects income tax refund and fewer receipts to the budget in comparison with other months of a year.

 

According to Exchequer data governmental costs in February made 232,05 billion dollars, that is also high indicator for a month. Costs were up 8 % in comparison with the same period of the last year and up 11 % in comparison with January.

 

The Exchequer informed that receipts to the budget of the federal government in February made 112,85 billion dollars, that is up 12 % in comparison with the same period of the last year, but down 51 % in comparison with the last month.

 

The oil market, which kept down last week, continues to sustain the dollar.

April futures for oil Light were closed on Friday with downturn below a level $60 for barrel, having fixed a mark $59,85 for barrel at closing of Friday session on NYMEX in New York. The prices for crude oil dipped last week after the Department of Energy representatives declared that stocks of the United States are up approximately 10 % than a year ago.

 

Technical picture.

Quotations continue to be in a narrow price range. Today the main news is the summit of EU Central Banks Heads. While positions of the European currencies and dollar are poised, chances are regarded as 50 to 50, therefore we remain outside of the market.

 

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