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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Readiness number one. Market‘s attention is directed on the publication of US labor market survey…

15:14 03/10/2006

So, despite depressing data on the US trade balance for January, which showed growth of deficit up to a record value, the dollar remained stable.

 

Let's remind that value of the indicator was equal to -68.5 billion dollars, at the forecast -66.7 billion dollars. However the previous value has been revised from -65.7 up to -65.1 billion dollars.

Thus import made $182.88 billion in January against $176.64 billion in December, and export - $114.37 billion against $111.56 billion in December. Growth of import happened due to growth of demand for consumer goods and high oil prices.

 

Another indicator from published yesterday, also was worse than the expected level. We shall remind that jobless claims in the USA for a week on March, 4th made 303.000, at the forecast 288.000. And the previous value has been revised from 294.000 up to 295.000.

For four weeks on March, 4th the average number of new jobless claims rose up to 293.500 from 287.250 a week earlier. It was originally informed on 287.250.

The total number of jobless in the USA for February, 25th made 2,506 million in comparison with 2,477 million a week earlier. It was originally informed on 2,486 million.

 

The dollar exchange rate has been supported against the European currencies by expectation of continuation of the US FRS monetary policy firming and also by positive expectations of today's publication of the US labor market survey.

 

Moods in favor of dollar purchase increased after New York FRB Head Timothy Gatener declared yesterday that the Central Bank should take into account the factor of Net Foreign Purchases at determination of parameters of a monetary policy.

In Gatener’s opinion toughening of monetary policy will help to level pressure, which renders foreign demand on rates.

 

"We should find the decision to stimulate consumption, to limit inflation in the long-term period, and thus to offset effect from purchases of the foreign Central Banks of  Treasury bonds, which is expressed in constant yield despite constant rate increase", - said New York FRB Head.

 

On the eve Bundesbank President Veber also declared that there can be a necessity for the further increase of ECB basic interest rates that supported a rate of euro on Wednesday.

 

Today attention of the market’s players  is directed on data of the US labor market survey for February. In opinion of the majority of analysts, these data will be the catalyst for the further movement of dollar.

Let's remind that the publication is planned at 13:30 GMT and experts forecast following values:

 

The forecast of nonfarm payrolls in the USA for February is equal to +200.000, and the previous value was +193.000;

The forecast of unemployment in the USA for February is equal to 4.8 %, and the previous value was 4.7 %;

And the forecast of the index of average hourly earnings in the USA for February is equal to +0.3 %. Thus previous value was +0.4 %.

 

Let's notice that in last hours forecasts of value of employment growth are corrected in favour of increase, and the average forecast of the market already makes +220.000. And many experts do not exclude upwardly revision of value for the last months.

 

Besides it is necessary to pay attention to the publication of two indicators, less significant for the market:

- Wholesale inventory index in the USA for January at 15:00 GMT. The forecast +0.5 %, the previous value +1.0 %;

- The federal budget in billion dollars in the USA for February at 19:00 GMT. The forecast -117.0, the previous value +21.0.

 

As a result we recommend to remain outside of the market and to wait for publications of data of the US labour market survey. These data will allow forecasting further dynamics of the foreign exchange market.

It is necessary to notice that weak values, which cannot be excluded, at general positive expectations, can play "a malicious joke" with stock gamblers.

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