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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Before tomorrow's US labor market survey basic currency pairs remain in a range...

22:53 03/09/2006

So, today in Tokyo the next two-day meeting of Bank of Japan Board began. There was taken the decision on the end of policy of quantitative appeasement of a monetary policy, held since 2001.

Let's remind that then ultra liberal monetary policy was accepted as an emergency measure to prevent crisis in financial sphere.

 

A target level for the basic interest rate in Japan, overnight interest rate is still a level of 0 %. The rates are very low, and stimulation will proceed. The bank has also noted that it will take some months to cut a target level of reserves from present 30-35 bln. yens.

CPI target level in the medium term/long-term period makes 0-2 % the Central Bank notices. The bank has also emphasized that will continue to buy long-term governmental bonds in former volume.

Seven members of Board voted for this decision. It is also necessary to notice that economic growth of Japan remains stable that was confirmed by data of the economic report of Bank of Japan for March.

 

As a result, after the announcement the termination of the period of BOJ ultra liberal monetary policy the dollar/yen rate hiked at once from a level 117.70 to 118.25, having broken out offer on 118.00 with stops above, however soon again returned at former levels.

Thus euro/yen also jumped by more than 50 points from 140.50 up to offers on 141.00, however then also returned to the previous levels. As a result, in spite of the fact that investors believed very much in Bank of Japan, there were not cardinal changes in the market.

 

Thus, the Bank’s of Japan decision, already considered by current quotations, was not a surprise for players. The main question for experts now is a question of determination of the beginning of process of rates increase. Now the majority of analysts assume that the first increase will happen not earlier than autumn of this year.

 

Let's also notice that the additional intrigue in the market was given by statements of ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Aksel Veber, who declared yesterday that the economy of Eurozone suffered from excessive monetary liquidity even after increase of rates by the central bank of Europe.

Veber warned of danger of secondary inflation as a result of VAT increase by Germany up to 19 % from 16 %. In Veber’s opinion increase of the tax stimulates a consumer demand in the second half of 2006, but will slow down economy in 2007.

 

"There is a significant surplus of liquidity. We see risks for the prices in medium-term and long-term prospect. The central banks should oppose resolutely to it", - Veber said.

 

It is remarkable that on this background drop} in oil quotations proceeds. We shall remind the bear moods in the market strengthened after OPEC decided to leave quotas for oil production at a level of 28 million barrels a day. We shall remind that the cartel’s president had already declared about it.

Let's notice, that besides earlier OPEC representatives informed that they would take reasonable steps for stabilization of oil prices below a level $70 for barrel and for compensation of incomplete deliveries from Nigeria and Iraq.

Yesterday's data oil and mineral oil on stocks put additional pressure upon oil market. We shall remind that according to EIA and the US Department of Energy for a week, ended on March, 3rd, 2006 oil stocks were up 6.8 million barrels to 335.1 million barrels.

Petroleum stocks were down 1.1 million barrels to 224.8 million barrels. Distillates stocks were down 2,7 million barrels to 131,4 million barrels, and oven fuel stocks  - down 4.2 million barrels to 51.4 million barrels.

As a result oil quotations are declining since morning, and after an issue of the data falling increased.

 

Before tomorrow's data on the US labor market for February we recommend to keep position outside of the market.

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