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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. USA Trade Balance data have not influenced on dollar essentially.

22:51 03/09/2006

Eurodollar quotations keep being in a zone of balance - in a currency corridor 1,1850-1,1950.

 

Trade Balance data have not influenced essentially on the dollar. According to the report of the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce, published today, data for January, 2006 showed the next expansion of trade balance Export-import up to $68,5 billion, that is much above the predicted value of $66,5 billion.

 

Thus, it became new record value of trade deficit and has continued the 10-years uptrend of this value. Export for January 2006 was down $2,8 billion, and import was up $6,3 billion against the same December data.

 

However, it was not unexpected by traders, the market has already got used to uptrend on trade deficit, therefore reaction to these data was not so active.

 

To some extent negative data on the US trade deficit have poised unexpectedly negative data on the Canadian trade balance. Proficiency of export-import transactions slumped up to $6.5 bln. against $65,7 billion.

 

Weekly data on jobless claims have not rendered essential influence on the dollar. Weekly data on March, 4th showed a little growth up to 303 000 against the previous data on February, 25th of 295 000. These data have not affected downtrend of jobless claims, meaning stabilization of a labor market. The peak of growth of claims was at the end of August - beginning of September, during hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico.

 

Technical picture.

Quotations keep firmly inside of a narrow price range 1,1850-1,1950. Traders do not hurry up with opening of long-term positions before the Employment report. We shall remind that tomorrow at the beginning of the American session, the publication of rather significant report of Employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor is expected.

The report includes 4 indicators:

Average Workweek

Hourly Earnings

Nonfarm Payrolls - employment level - number of workplaces, except for agriculture.

Unemployment Rate - a percentage rate of unemployment.

Indicators Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are especially important. The increase of the first and reduction of the last - supports the dollar and on the contrary reduction of the first indicator and increase of the second - put pressure upon the dollar.

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