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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Dollar is supported by current statistics and also by aggressive statements of FRS representatives…

17:57 03/08/2006

So, at support of Saint Louis FRB Head William Pool, who commented quite rigidly on the eve, the dollar continued its growth.

Let's remind that Saint Louis FRB Head declared in interview to Reuters that the US economy showed confident rise that, possibly, would lead to necessity of the further rates increase.

"If strong data continue to come, we will need to act more aggressively", he has noticed.

 

Dollar is also supported by raw currencies, which continued their easing - falling of Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollar rates were especially significant. Dollar is sustained by increasing US Treasury 10 years bonds’ yield, which has already reached maximal level of 4,8 % since 2004.

 

Let's also notice that yesterday's economic data, at their seeming variety, nevertheless, have been more positive for a rate of the American currency.

Let's remind that labor productivity in the USA in 4 quarter of the last year was down 0.5 % in a quarterly calculation, according to the revised data. Earlier it was informed on decrease on 0.6 %.

Experts expected that falling would make only 0.1 %. Thus in the 3 quarter of 2005 increase in efficiency made 4.2 %.

And labor cost was up 3.3 % q/q in the 4 quarter whereas earlier it was informed on growth on 3.5 %.

 

Moreover, an optimistic mood of the market is supported by the US consumer credit data for January, which showed maximal growth of volumes of consumer crediting for last four months.

Let's remind that value of the indicator made +3.9 billion dollars, at the forecast +7.0 billion dollars. And the previous value was revised from +3.3 up to +3.4 billion dollars.

 

As a result yesterday the euro/dollar rate, having continued reduction at the American session, reached a level 1.1865, minimal for a week. The total drop in a rate made more than 150 points within day. Growth of the dollar/franc rate made 250 points since the beginning of the week

As a whole, before meetings of two largest central banks, strengthening of a dollar exchange rate in FOREX proceeds.

 

Let's remind again that investors’ attention is directed on starting today next two-day meeting of Bank of Japan Board in Tokyo. The level of the basic interest rates and other indicators of a monetary policy will be discussed there.

While some market’s participants reduce volume of their yen short positions that is connected with expectation of possible change of a current monetary policy in Japan.

Let's notice that now the volume of current transactions of bank is in a range of 30-35 bln. yens.

 

Also today in London the next two-day meeting of Committee on the monetary policy of Bank of England begins today. Its decision will be announced tomorrow at 12:00 GMT.

The majority of experts forecast that the repo rate will be left without change at a level of 4.50 %. Last time the rate was changed on August, 4th of the last year and was reduced by 0.25 %.

 

Besides today at IAEA meeting there will be solved the further lot of a situation around the Iranian nuclear program. While, on a background of OPEC messages about low probability of drop in quotas for oil production, oil quotations dipped at tenders on Tuesday.

So, April futures for the American light oil were down $0,83 to $61,58 for barrel, and April futures for oil Brent were down $1,17 to $61,17 for barrel.

 

While we recommend to keep a waiting position. Renewal of strategic purchases of dollar against franc and canadian dollar will be possible after a situation settlement, or rather, after the analysis of the comments of BOJ and BOE representatives. Besides, this weekend the publication of key release of a week – the US labor market survey - is expected.

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