Yesterday the main event of a week became ECB Governing Council meeting, at which the decisions on prospects of monetary policy of the Central Bank of European Union were made. European Central Bank made a decision to increase a level of refinancing rate by 0,25 % up to 2,5 % per annum. Such step was predicted by analysts as earlier ECB Head Jean-Claude Trichet told about a policy of the further increase of discount rates.

"Conditions for continuation of economic prosperity in a zone of euro are still kept, - Trichet declared. - External conditions remain favorable and float export of the Eurozone countries, financial conditions for the long-term period are also very favorable."

Previous ECB meeting took place on February, 2nd. Then the discount rate was kept at a level of 2,25 % per annum. It was raised up to this mark in December after the rate remained constant at a level of 2 % during the whole five-years period.

ECB decision is caused by increasing inflationary risks, and also accelerated economic growth in the Eurozone countries. ECB raised the forecast of inflation growth and the forecast of GDP growth of Eurozone for this year. In experts’ opinion this means that in future the rate will rise.

After that central European event, and also on a background of previous weak data over the USA, first of all, data on inflation, the US housing market turndown and decrease of Conference Board consumer confidence - the market has been already “charged” against the dollar in favor of the dollar.

At the beginning of week Chain Deflator-Prel, the inflation indicator showed growth of the total price level up to 3,3 %, then data on inflation growth were supported by data of the US Department of Commerce - the price index of consumer expenses was up 0.5 % in January after unchanged indicator in December. The consumer confidence in the USA, according to Conference Board index, dropped to a three-monthly minimum, 101.7 in February against 106.8 in January.

The dollar falling happened at the American session, the catalyst of it became week data on  Initial Jobless Claims from the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.

Initial jobless claims were up 15,000 for a week on February, 25th to 294,000.

The 4-week average of new claims was up 5,250 to 287,250. The 4-week average smoothes influence on data of separate events, such as storm or holidays.

Economists forecast rise of initial jobless claims approximately on 287,000. Meanwhile, the repeated claims were down 2,000 to a 5-years minimum on 2.486 million for a week on February, 18th.

The oil market has again entered uptrend, growth of quotations is observed from the beginning of a week, the third day in row oil is closed with increase on NYMEX.

April futures for crude oil rose in the price on $1.39, or 2.2 %, up to $63.36 for barrel at closing in New York. It became the maximal monthly level.

Data on growth of oil and mineral oil stocks yesterday were ignored by the market, being under impression of the Al-Quaeda’s new threats, intensity in Iran and Nigeria.

IAEA decision to take Iranian case to Security Council of the United Nations will raise probability of sanction application to Iran that will provoke reduction of deliveries from the country, being the 4 largest oil producer. The conflict in Nigeria between legitimate authority and separatists becomes heated that threatens with a delay of oil deliveries from this country.

Technical picture.

The market’s moods in favor of euro strengthened and it is most likely that these moods will prevail in the near future.

Break out of the top border of a currency corridor – resistance line 1,1950 is a good application for the beginning uptrend. But now it is not necessary to hurry up with opening positions, you should wait for the first recoil before the bull trend, the postponed pound sterling orders lost their importance.

Today the release of two significant indicators over the USA, which can affect dynamics of the market, is expected:

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February, a preliminary value and Institute for Supply Management index.