The dollar decreased at the beginning of week on weak fundamental data over the USA. However euro quotations, having tested top border - a resistance level of 1,1950, remained within the limits of a narrow currency corridor 1,1950-1,1850.

Yesterday's news releases poised the bear and bull tendencies in the market. The dollar has got support after the publication of fundamental ISM indicators.

Institute for Supply Management informed that for the first time since October in February business activity in industrial sector of the USA accelerated rates of its growth, assuming that business investments can improve their contribution to growth of national economy this year, and it, in its turn, will spur FRS to continue monetary toughening.

According to ISM the index of industrial activity rose up to 56.7 in comparison with January value 54.8 and average value of 55.5 for the whole 2005. According to Bloomberg News average forecast the indicator must have grown only up to 55.5.

The paid price index went down to 62.5 against 65. On forecasts the price index must have fallen to 64.2. The new orders index, the indicator of the future growth, climbed to 61.9 against 58 in January.

Data of the US Department of Commerce on consumer expenses have also supported the dollar.

According to data of the report of the US Department of Commerce, published today, in January consumer expenses were up 0.9 % - maximally for 6 months – it is a little below the average forecast of the market. Personal incomes were up 0.7 % m/m in January that became the maximal gain since September and surpassed Wall Street forecasts of +0.6 %. Growth of incomes made 5.8 % y/y.

Improvement of a situation in a labor market keeps influencing positively on consumers’ sentiment and their readiness for charges. More and more Americans wish to buy a house or a car. Expenses recovery will allow the US economy to grow on 5.6 %,this quarter, economists at Morgan Stanley consider.

However, there were also negative notes in a positive report: the report reflected also growth of inflation. The price index of consumer expenses was up 0.5 % in January after December indicator, which did not change. Inflation data, published in the Chain Deflator report of the US Exchequer, confirmed that. Net inflation was up 1.8 % y/y, that is below a December indicator of 1.9 % and FRS target level of 2 %.

The report also showed a negative dynamics of growth of personal incomes of the Americans.

Despite growth of personal incomes on 0.7 % in January increasing inflation practically levelled growth of incomes. It also became the minimal annual gain of incomes since March, 2004.

The dollar was under pressure of a situation in the oil market, growth of oil futures has already been observed the second day. Yesterday the price for April oil futures Light were closed with increase on 1,5 % up to $62 for barrel.

Oil is up despite week data on growth of oil stocks.

Stocks of crude oil for a week on February, 24th +0.5 %; +9.1 % y/y

Stocks of crude oil remain "considerably above the top border" of an average range.

Distillates stocks for a week on February, 24^th -1.1 %; +14.4 % y/y

Distillates stocks remain "considerably above the top border" of an average range.

Petroleum stocks for a week on February, 24th +0.1 %; +0.1 % y/y

Petroleum stocks are "above the top border" of an average range.

Technical picture. Despite weak data over the USA at the beginnings of week the dollar is kept within the limits of a sideways 1,1850-1,1950 on euro. While we remain outside of the market, the postponed pound sterling orders remain important.