So, after yesterday's publications on a background of small activity of players the market puzzled many players by its volatility. We shall remind that after falling to a level 1.3040, the dollar/franc rate rose almost instantly to a level 1.3176.

The reason of such movements was the publication of ISM business index in the USA for February and data on incomes and expenses. The market’s players did not ignore data on construction spending in the USA.

So, the population incomes in the USA were up 0.7 % m/m in January, at the forecast of growth on 0.6 % m/m. And in December incomes were up 0.5 % m/m.

Thus expenses were up 0.9 % in monthly calculation, at forecasts of growth on1 %, whereas a month earlier growth made 0.7 %.

And the price index, reflecting personal consumption, was up 0.5 % in January after a zero growth in December. And the index, except for food and energy prices, was up 0.2 % m/m in January after growth on 0.1 % m/m in December.

Let's remind that Core PCE is the main indicator of determination of FRS price pressure in the US economy.

Yesterday the main positive was the publication of ISM index of industrial activity, which at experts’ forecasts of growth up to 55.6 points, rose up to 56.7 points in February, 2006 from 54.8 in January.

And the new orders index climbed up to 61.9 points in February from 58.0 points in January. The price index decreased to 62.5 points from 65.0 points. The employment index raised up to 55.0 points from 51.3 points.

It is remarkable that growth of the index of industrial activity is noted for the first time since October of the last year. Experts assume that raising profits of the companies allow them to increase capital investments and to fill up inventories, increasing productivity to supply a great demand.

These data assume the further economic growth, and also strengthen expectation that for inflation restraint the US FRS will proceed with a cycle of monetary policy firming.

Let's remind that value of the index above 50 points means expansion in sector, below - turndown.

Let's notice that the contradictory estimation of a situation in the foreign exchange market from various investment banks is kept. On a background of that some large players keep dollar long positions Citigroup, for example, continues to sell US dollars.

The investors’ attention is focused now on the forthcoming publication of the US GDP in the first quarter. In opinion of senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Michael Woolfolk there is a universal sensation that growth of the indicator will be especially strong - at a level of 4.5 % - 6.0 %.

As a whole, at least, two forthcoming increases (in March and May) have been already considered by the market. The market’s gamblers are interested in other central banks steps. We shall remind players wait for today's meeting of ECB Governing Council concerning change of interest rates in Europe (12) which results will be known at 12:45 GMT.

And at 13:30 GMT press conference on results of the meeting takes place. We shall notice that increase of ECB rate by 0.25 % has been already considered by the current prices and if comments of president Jean-Claude Trichet disappoint the market’s participants the probability of dollar strengthening against the European currencies will be high enough.

At the same time the publication of jobless claims data in the USA for a week on 25.02 is planned. We shall remind that the forecast of the indicator is equal to 285.000, and the previous value was 278.000.

In the next few days meetings of others central banks concerning change of rates take place. So,  Bank of Canada meeting is on March, 7th, Bank of England and Bank of Japan meetings - on March, 9th.

As the differential in rates remains the main driver in the market, the importance of these meetings, and especially the statement of the officials, is difficult to overestimate.

It is also necessary not to forget about uncertainty of a situation, developed in energy market. We shall remind that oil quotations decreased a little right after publication of data of the US Department of Energy on oil stocks for a week, ended on February, 24th, 2006, however the total background does not exclude renewal of rise.

Let's notice that according to Interfax agency Teheran warns IAEA against "a language of threats" directed against Teheran at meeting of this organization Board on March, 6th.

"If there is an equitable solution Iran is ready for cooperation, but I warn them of use of language of threats", - the secretary of the Supreme council of national safety of Iran Ali Laridzani told on Wednesday to journalists in Moscow.

As a result, as the probability of correction remains, we recommend keeping the postponed orders on a rate purchase from a level 1.2980.

Let's also remind that the situation around the dollar/canadian pair, because of its high correlation with energy market position, looks now less predictable. Opening of "longs" on the given rate will be possible only after reliable signals of change of the tendency, which has not been observed yet.