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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

11:47 03/01/2006

On Tuesday the American currency dipped after the publication of unfavorable economic data in the USA.

These data increased the probability of the termination of a cycle of monetary policy firming.

 

In its turn, the single European currency grew a little against the Japanese yen.

Recently the Japanese currency rose because of conversations on the fast termination of a current cycle of monetary policy of Bank of Japan.

 

As the US Department of Commerce informed the American economy was up 1,6 % y/y in the fourth quarter.

The indicator exceeded the expected level of +1.1 %.

At the same time the index is minimal since 2002.

In the first quarter of a current year it is expected that rates of the US economic growth will make 4,5 %, and for the whole 2006 - 3,3 %

 

The consumer confidence of the USA decreased to a three-monthly minimum as Americans worry about prospects of economic growth and incomes rise in the next half of a year.

The consumer confidence index of Conference Board went down to 101.7 against 106.8 in January. The indicator of the last year on the average made 100.3.

 

Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in the USA decreased up to 54.9 in February against 58.5 in January. Low value of this indicator can forebode weaker business index at a national level, which will be published tomorrow.

 

According to National Association of Realtors existing home sales were down 2.8 % to seasonably adjusted 6.56 million units in January, 2006, becoming the minimum level for 2 years.

Economists forecast volumes of sales on 6.65 million.

 

According to Eurostat data growth of annual inflation in Eurozone made 2,4 % in January from 2,2 % in December.

It is the first growth since the moment when inflation reached 2,6 % in September, having increased from 2,2 % in August because of pressure of oil prices.

The January indicator means that inflation again exceeded a target level of 2 % fixed by the European Central Bank that raises even more expectations of increase of the interest rate at ECB meeting on Thursday.

 

Business sentiment index in Eurozone for February made 102.7 at the forecast 102.4.

The previous value of the given index made 101.5.

 

The indicator of a business climate of Eurozone for February made +0.61 against the previous value +0.34.

 

Wholesales index in Germany for January in view of inflation made-2.3 % for a month, +3.0 % for a year at the previous value of +0.8 % for a month, +1.2 % y/y.

 

According to the Cabinet of statistics of Germany seasonably adjusted rate unemployment in February made 11.3 %, not having changed on comparison with January value.

Real value was in line with forecasts.

The unemployment rate concerning the same period a year ago, has slightly grown up to a mark of 12.2 % against 12.1 % in January.

 

Unemployment in France for January made 9.6 % in comparison with 9.5 % the last month and with 10.1 % in January, 2005.

Consumer sentiment index in France in February showed growth the third straight month according to the national statistical agency.

Consumer sentiment index rose up to -24 in February from -27 in January. In November the index reached a minimum -33.

Economists forecast that in February the index would remain without changes at a level -27.

 

The index of industrial prices in France for January made +0.8 % for a month, +3.7 % for a year.

The previous value of the given index made -0.1 % for a month, +3.1 % y/y.

 

As national statistical agency Istat informed the index of industrial prices in Italy was up 1,1 % in January in comparison with December and up 4,7 % in comparison with January, 2005.

 

Preliminary value of a consumer price index in Italy for February made +0.2 % for a month, +2.1 % for a year at the previous value of +0.2 % for a month, +2.2 % for a year.

 

Preliminary value of the harmonized consumer price index in Italy for February made +2.2 % for a year that is in line with the previous value.

 

The British currency has also raised despite weak fundamental data over the UK.

 

According to Confederation of the British Manufacturers in February there was observed reduction of sales.

Retail sales index made -18 in February in comparison with -11 in January. Economists forecast that the index would make -8.

 

Housing price index of Nationwide company in Great Britain made-0.2 % for a month, +3.7, for a year in February.

The previous value made +1.4 % for a month, +4.4 % for a year.

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