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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market ‘s daily review

15:20 02/28/2006

On Monday the Japanese yen continued its rise owing to conversations on a monetary policy of Bank of Japan in short-term prospect. It is expected that the Bank of Japan can soon stop a current "extralight" rate of monetary policy and raise interest rates.

The first rate increase can already happen at the beginning of March, at the nearest meeting of Bank of Japan Board, and shift to monetary policy toughening can be in April.

Thus, at the tenders on Monday the dollar/yen rate was down almost 150 points and was about a mark of 116.20.

 

However the American currency became stronger against other currencies, having achieved a 2-month's maximum against euro and a 3-month's maximum against the Swiss franc, despite expected rise of ECB rate this week as investors also expect the further increase of FRS rate.

This week investors expect key data over the USA, such as of a manufacturing industry and on inflation.

The market also expects data on a consumer price index of Japan on Friday, which according to forecasts should rise by 0.4 % against the last year.

 

The economic data, published on Monday in Europe (12), have rendered some support to a rate of euro against dollar.

However euro sales versus yen, and also falling of oil prices restrain growth of a rate of euro/dollar.

 

As ECB declared money supply ?3 in Eurozone was up 7.6 y/y in January against growth on 7.3 % in December.

Economists forecast growth on 7.3 %.

 

Three-monthly average value of annual growth ?3 in November-January made 7.5 % against 7.6 % in October-December. Analysts forecast growth on 7.3 %.

 

According to the preliminary seasonably adjusted data of the Ministry of Labor in January the number of jobless in France started to grow contrary to expectations as the employment rates slowed down, and the reduction of the staff increased.

According to ILO standards in January the growth of jobless was observed after stable decrease of the indicator on 165,000 since May.

As a result total number of jobless made 2.639 million, and ILO rate grew a little up to 9.6 % after small drop in December.

Insee experts suppose that in the nearest half of a year the labor market will remain weak.

 

In the monthly survey web-site Hometrack has informed that housing prices in Great Britain in February were up 0.4 % basically because of incomes in London. The rise in prices is observed the third straight month and is the highest since June, 2004.

The US Department of Commerce declared on Monday that new home sales in the country were down 5 % to annual value 1.233 million in January, a minimum for a year.

New home sales in the market were up 2.5 % to a top of 528,000. These are monthly stocks, maximal for 9 years. Sales in December were revised upwardly to 1.298 million against 1.269 million earlier. For 2005 new home sales were up 6.6 % to a record value of 1.285 million.

Economists forecast that home sales would remain at a former level nearby 1.27 million in January, according to MarketWatch survey, assuming that warm weather this month might have kept the indicator from reduction.

The average home price was up 6.7 % y/y up to $238,100 that is in line with the average price in 2005.

The government warns that data on the housing market are very choppy and will be revised for the purpose of statistical mistakes.

The building permits in the USA in January were up 6.8 % against December to 2.216 million a year adjusted for seasonal variations, the US Department of Commerce informed.

It was originally informed that the building permits for January were up 6.8 % and made 2.217 million a year adjusted for seasonal variations.

 

On Monday the canadian dollar was up more than 100 points against the American currency owing to black ink of Canada.

In the fourth quarter 2005 proficiency of a current balance of the balance of payments of Canada reached a record-breaking high mark, which was above experts’ forecasts.

Adjusted for seasonal variations proficiency of the current account has made 13.28 billion Canadian dollars against 7.76 a quarter earlier.

Proficiency made 30.2 billion canadian dollars y/y against 28.8 billion canadian dollars in 2004.

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