The dollar has become stronger after Friday fundamental data over the USA and almost has not reacted to growth of the world oil market. 

The total indicator of the US durable goods orders showed the lowest data for last 5 years.

According to the report of the Census Bureau of the US Department of Commerce, for January, 2006:

Durable Goods Orders indicator was down 10,2 %, after growth on 2,5 %in December. Economists expected on average that the total volume of orders would be down 2 %, and the range of forecasts varied from -8 % up to +1 %.

However the more informative and the most objective indicator is considered component parameter of Orders for Durable Goods index - Orders for Durable Goods, less Defense and less Transport.

Defense orders can essentially distort an objective picture of the market as they are more connected with political situation in the country rather than with economic realities. Transport orders do not depend on a current politics, but are subject to the strong fluctuations connected with the unstable raw market. Motor transport orders correlate firmly with the oil market and the mineral oil market.       

As a rule, exchange analysts keep track with special attention of this compound indicator - ODG index.

According to the report Orders for Durable Goods index, less Defense and less Transport, was up 0,6 % in January, that is a little below growth of a similar indicator in December - 1,9 % (revised from 0,9 %), but is above the predicted value in January - 0,5 %.

The principal cause of falling of the total indicator of ODG index became reduction of volume of aircraft construction orders. They were down 68.2 % - as much as possible since December, 1998 - after decrease on 2.8 % in December. But even after such dip the value remains in January above average.     

As a whole transport orders were down 31.2 %, that was also the greatest drop since July, 2000. Since November 2001 orders for means of production in defense industry reduced maximally (-64.3 %).

However, these figures should not cause anxiety, in Dag Green's opinion, the President of analytical agency Brefing. In November-December plane orders were extraordinary strong, and now the indicator reverts to norm.

Moreover durable goods orders showed growth in comparison with the same period of the last year - Year-over-year indicator was up 6,5 %. And civil goods orders which are considered as a barometer of business investments, were up 9,8 % since last year. The level of business investments is at strong level, despite decrease in total ODG index for January.

The oil market has put some pressure upon dollar and caused its consolidation at a support level of 1,1850.

Futures for oil Light with delivery in April were closed with increase on 1$ yesterday at NYMEX. The closing price made $62,8 for barrel.    

Nervousness of oil dealers has been caused by news about the explosions in Saudi Arabia in area of a large oil-refining factory Abqaiq. Later there were messages about skirmish in area of this object.

Technical picture. The price tested a level 1,1850 to euro and approached closely to a level 1,7360 on pound sterling. It is most likely that the prices will be consolidated at these levels up to an issue of the US GDP report for the 4 quarter. 

The report of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce on preliminary value of GDP: Gross Domestic Product for 4 quarter the market expects tomorrow - on February, 28th, at the beginning of the American session. The same day Chain Deflator will be published. Preliminary data shows a rate of inflation and brings correlation to GDP accounting prices, proceeding from inflation.

The dollar keeps its positions expecting a positive on these data.

Growth of this indicator, as a rule, always influence positively on the dollar position.

The recommendations on pound sterling hold good, on euro - opened Shorts should be kept, according to the recommendation dated February, 23rd - stop is kept not closer than 100 points.