So, the American dollar against the European currencies fixes an accurate at a final point of week on key resistance of the last ten days, remaining, however, thus in borders of a trading range.

Rise of the American currency rate is being supported strongly by positive expectations of stable the US economic growth and continuation of a cycle of FRS monetary policy firming. We shall remind that the basis for such expectations became optimistical statements of FRS Head Greenspan, who left his post, statements of new Head Bernanke about succession and preservation of former priorities of currency policy, and also the last positive economic data.

Let's remind that FRS new head Ben Bernanke declared at the Congress on February, 15th, that the American economy was in a stage of growth that could lead Fed to necessity of the further increase of the rate.

It is also necessary to notice that the future for the refinancing rate indicates that FED will lift rates at least twice this year - in March and May then there can be some pause. We shall remind that since June, 2004, FRS has already made 14 straight increases.

In experts’ opinion if Federal Reserve representatives hint that it is necessary to lift interest rates higher to restrain inflation the dollar will receive an additional impulse and can leave borders of last trading range.

However there are some factors, which keep putting permanent pressure upon dollar. First of all escalation of geopolitical intensity in the Near East strengthens risks of volatility in the oil market.

So on Friday, after messages on explosions in Saudi Arabia oil quotations responded with instant growth. On messages from the Arabian mass media, in area of an oil-refining factory the explosion was heard, later it was noted that the factory was attacked by two cars with an explosive.

As a result, except for the fears around the nuclear program of Iran, and habitual acts of terrorism in the occupied Iraq there appeared a new center of intensity, already in Saudi Arabia - the world's largest oil-producing country.

As a result on this background on Friday the April future for oil WTI hiked up to $62.63 then decreased to $62.00. We shall notice that before the explosion the tenders were in area of $61.50. However analysts of the oil market do not exclude probability of the further reduction as later there appeared messages that attacks of terrorists were successfully repulsed, and the car with an explosive was blown up not in territory of the factory, and at a checkpoint.

Analysts also pointed out that on Friday the dollar did not almost react to statistics of durable goods orders, which dipped sharply in January in the USA.

Reduction of the indicator made 10.2 %, and data for December were revised up to +2.5 % from + 1.8 % m/m.

Except for transport sector in January the volume of orders was up 0.6 % in comparison with growth on 1.9 % in December.

Thus the volume of orders except for defense sector, at the forecast of drop in orders only on 1.2 % m/m, was down 8.1 % m/m that became a record.

As a result some doubts arose expecting the further increases of FRS rate.

Let's also notice that last data on economy of Europe (12), have strengthened positive expectations of the market players in March increase of ECB basic interest rate.

So, according to preliminary data, a consumer price index in Germany, at the experts’ forecast of growth on 0.4 % m/m and on 2.0 % y/y; was up 0.4 % m/m and up 2.1 % y/y in February.

The deflation in January made 0.5 percent by December, inflation - 2.1 % y/y. The harmonized inflation in February made 0.4 % m/m and 2.1 % y/y.

As a whole, despite Friday publication the situation around the currency pairs has not cleared up. It is obvious that today the market does not have a leading driver, that is a theme to which it would react instantly. Probably, the market was accustomed to band trade and it [market] is lacking of fresh stimulus, or means for opening of new positions and acceptance of additional risk. Some analysts connect this situation with absence of medium term trend.

The market’s confusion has been proved to be true by contradictory estimations of a current situation by various leading invest banks.

So, for example, if Citibank predicts near growth of euro to $1.27, keeping long-term "longs", protected by stops under a level $1.18; and within two last weeks Lehman Brothers recommends to sell euro, expecting forthcoming dip of support at a level $1.18.

Thus some technical analysts, analyzing a current situation of the dollar/franc rate, say that the pair tries to form "upturned sauce”, considering July and November tops of the last year, however today realization of this figure remains less predictable - growth above a maximum of November, 16th will assume the further progress and testing of the top border of the channel at levels of 1.3450-70.

While the dollar/franc rate overcame local levels of resistance on Friday, and designated technically an opportunity of the further growth, however probability of correction against dollar is still kept.

Levels 1.3170 - 1.3280 represent a dense zone of sell-orders, and at a corresponding fundamental background the further growth risks to stick in it.

Today the dollar/canadian rate looks much more vulnerable, the renewed rise in oil prices supports a rate of canadian dollar.

As a result, considering the developed position, we recommend to keep position outside of the market, waiting for situation to clear up.