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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF, USDCAD Basic currency pairs remain in a range, large players prefer to be outside of the market

18:14 02/24/2006

So, the market’s players again start to pay attention to a situation around the Asian currencies. We shall remind that last week there were rumors about strengthening of the American pressure on the Chinese People's Republic because of nonmarket methods of rate policy of the Chinese government.

 

Then there were speculations on a theme of change of a monetary policy of Bank of Japan before long. We shall remind that the Japanese officials declared repeatedly that in a new financial year the Bank of Japan would start to put into practice first steps in this direction.

As a result the Japanese currency rate began to strengthen again, putting pressure on the European currencies and dollar.

 

However, on the other hand, the American currency was supported by Jobless claims data in the USA for a week on February, 18th, which made 278000 at the forecast 285000. Thus the previous value has been revised from 297000 up to 298000.

The average of number of claims for 4 weeks reduced up to 281.750 from 283.250 a week earlier. The total number of jobless made 2 million 495 thousand against 2 million 454 thousand a week earlier.

And help-wanted index in the USA made 37 for January, at the forecast 40 and the previous value 38.

 

It is remarkable that last night in the market there was the next rumor, which flew quickly in financial circles. According to this information some central banks are really going to buy euro at a level of 1.1900 in volume.

It is necessary to notice that frequently such rumors are inspired by privy, and often help to achieve objects rather effectively. As they say "by all means" …

 

Let's also notice that today's data on German lands have supported actively growth of euro. We shall remind that a consumer price index in Saxony in Germany for February made +0.5 % for a month, +2.5 % for a year, at the previous value -0.4 % for a month, +2.5 % for a year.

And a consumer price index in Hesse in Germany for February was equal to  +0.6 % for a month, +1.7 % for a year, at the previous value -0.6 % for a month, +1.4 % for a year.

Oil continues to remain in a trading range, being at its bottom border. We shall remind that yesterday oil fell in price on a background of the publication of data on stocks growth in the USA.

So, according to the report for February, 17th oil stocks in the USA were up 1.1 million barrels to 326.7 million, as well as the experts predicted. And petroleum stocks were up  100.000 barrels to 225.6 million that became a maximum since June, 4th, 1999.

As a result yesterday April futures for oil WTI were down $0.47 to $60.54 for barrel, but then the quotation grew a little.

And today oil has traded in area of $61.25.

Today it is necessary to pay attention not only to durable goods orders index in the USA for January at 13:30 GMT. We shall remind that the forecast is equal to -4.0 %, and the previous value +1.3 %.  Do not ignore German data. These data will be considered by ECB in the further steps concerning a monetary policy.

So, the forecast of a preliminary value of a consumer price index in Germany for February is equal to +0.4 % for a month, +2.1 % for a year, and the previous value was -0.5 % for a month, +2.1 % for a year. The publication is planned at 14:00 GMT.

At the same time a preliminary value of the harmonized consumer price index in Germany for February will be published. The previous value was +2.1 % for a year.

 

We still recommend holding a temporizing policy. The uncertainty, still kept in the market, has the increased trading risks.

 

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