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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Quotations are still in a balance zone.

13:15 02/24/2006

Yesterday a leader of growth was pound sterling against dollar. After publication of the Bank’s of England meeting minutes players believed in a national currency of the UK.

Contrary to the market’s opinion the Bank of England left the rate at a constant level of 4,5 % per annum by a majority.

Reduction of the rate was expected - cooling in housing market and downswing in Great Britain was a stimulus for the Bank of England.

However, achievement of inflationary expectations close to a target level of 2.0 %, and pressure of energy prices induced the Board to leave the rate without change for restraint of inflation growth.

 

Position of dollar quotations to euro remains constant.

The dollar was supported unexpectedly after an issue of weekly Initial Jobless Claims report of the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.

Initial jobless claims were down 20 000 to 278 000 for a week on February, 18th. It can be compared with an average weekly indicator 326 700 for the last 12 months.

 

Economists forecast growth of jobless claims up to 300 000 against the indicator 297 000 for the previous period. The four-week average index of claims, which is less changeable indicator, decreased up to 281,750 against 283,250.

 

Keeping of the oil prices above a mark $60 despite the local turndown at yesterday's American session to this level puts some pressure upon dollar and holds it within the limits of a currency corridor 1,1950 - 1,1850 to euro.

 

Market’s dollar moods have been cooled a little by the statement of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anthony Santomero. Santomero was optimistical concerning economy, having declared that after weak GDP growth in the4 quarter "there are signs of that the economy repairs an omission this quarter".

However, potential real economic rise can make more than 3 %, the rise should be slowed down at this level. An attempt achieve stronger growth can cause inflation hike, he warned.

 

As for the FRS federal funds rate he said that FRS monetary policy seemed now "close to neutral" and the further rate rise should be justified by corresponding economic indicators.

 

On the other hand, the euro against dollar were sustained by data on German business confidence. Business confidence index in Germany, according to IFO researches, rose up to 103,3 in February against 101,8 in January. It is a peak since October, 1991. Economists forecast decrease of the index to 101.5.

 

As a whole this week was calm, the quotations remained inside of a narrow sideways - a currency range 1,1850-1,1950.

 

Today the release of the industrial index - Durable Goods Orders - is expected.

Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

This report reflects volumes, in money terms, of orders, factory shipments, and also unfilled durable goods orders, which operation life surpasses 3 years. This indicator is considered as the important index of a manufacture condition. The most objective and more informative indicator is considered Durable Goods Orders index, except for defense and transport orders, including an aircraft industry.

Yesterday's recommendations hold good.

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