Situation in the oil market, monthly retail prices data and week data on Redbook retail sales, have not affected essentially dollar positions.

After oil prices hike at the beginning of week at yesterday's American session, futures for crude oil with delivery in April closed with downturn on $1.73, or 2.8 %, up to a mark $61.01 per a barrel in New York.

The oil market expects increase in stocks of oil and petroleum in a weekly report of Department of Energy.

Futures for natural gas also lost 44.8 cents or 5.8 %, and closed at $7.283 per a million thermal units.

Retail sales data on – annual and monthly data raised a little, but week indicators remained without changes.

-February 2006, Redbook sale index +2.9 % against February 2005

- Redbook index for a week on February, 18th of +2.5 % against the last year

- Redbook index for a week on February, 18th – shop sales did not change against the last week.

Consumer prices in the USA - CPI – was up 0.7 % above the forecasts in January on a background of a rise in prices on energy, food stuffs and public utilities according to the yesterday's report of Department of Labor.

Core CPI was up 0.2 % the last month according to the forecasts.

CPI growth should raise a probability of FRS rate increase up to 4.75 % at the end of March. The probability of the further rate increase will most likely to be again considered by FOMC members.

The first reaction of the financial markets to the release of the report was insignificant. FRS declared about supposing of the end of a cycle of rate rise, however, it was still anxious of a probability of economic overheating and growth of inflationary pressure. The high energy prices can promote escalation of blanket prices.

The economists, surveyed by MarketWatch, forecast CPI growth on 0.5 % in January after growth on 0.7 % in November and on 0.1 % in December. For the last 12 months CPI was up 4%. Core ?PI was up 2.1 % for the same time that is near the top border of FRS comfort zone, however it was down 2.2 % in December.

After two months of reduction energy prices were up 5 % in January. Petroleum prices were up 6.4 %. Electricity prices reached a record value of 5.5 %. Food prices were up 0.5 %.

The public utilities costs were up 0.5 % basically because of fuel prices.

Transport costs were up 1.8 %. New car prices rose on 0.6 %.

Medical care costs were up 0.1 %. Education and communication costs were up 0.4 %.

Positions of pound sterling have a little become stronger in a framework of a currency range. The Bank’s minutes showed that according to the minutes only one of 9 ??? members - Stephen Nikell - voted for decrease of the rate. The majority of Committee members were sure of that the rate increase would lead to inflation growth and were also concerned about possible influence of high oil prices on inflation.

Euro has been supported a little bit after an issue of data about decline of imbalance of EU current transactions.

Imbalance of current transactions in Eurozone dipped to 5.3 billion euro in December against 9.5 billion in November as ECB declared.

In November imbalance was revised to downturn against preliminary value of 10.1 bln. euro.

These data mean that imbalance of current transactions in Eurozone made 29.0 billion euro in 2005, that makes approximately 0.3 % of gross domestic product after in 2004 proficiency made 43.5 billion euro, ECB informed.

As a whole position in the market changed slightly since yesterday, therefore all recommendations hold good:

The medium term dollar trend designated a top - at a level 1,1850.

The prices were stabilized in a narrow range of the prices.

The fundamental background is gradually declined in favor of dollar, now there are no significant factors for growth of euro and pound sterling. Stabilization of the oil market because of the probability of the Iranian problem settlement and growth of the US economic indicators can tip the scale to dollar side.

Euro sales from levels 1,1850-1,1810 will be important with the purposes 1,1720 - 1 purpose and 1,1640 - 2 purpose.

Similar levels on pound sterling:

Sales from 1, 7360, with the first purpose 1,7250 and the second purpose 1,7164