Yesterday minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee US FRS for January, 31st, 2006 were published.

The market reacted to it by slight dollar strengthening inside a narrow price range - a currency corridor 1,1950-1,1850.

In spite of the fact that it was the last meeting under Allan Greenspan’s direction - comments of FOMC meeting of January, 31st not do not differ very much from Ben Bernanke’s theses - the new Head of the Committee - in the Congress, at the beginning of this month. It partly explains so weak reaction to this significant event.

According to this communiqu? the US Federal Reserve System does not exclude the further interest rate rise after increase in January, considering inflationary risks. Dynamics of rates will depend on incoming macroeconomic data, FOMC meeting minutes, published on Tuesday confirm.

"Though the policy seems to be close to the required level, considering current forecasts, some further firming can be necessary for inflationary pressure restraint and counterpoising of price stability risks and the steady economic growth", - the minutes said.

Some board members estimated the data of base inflation and its forecasts as "a little” higher than it was desirable.

"However all members agreed that the next route for the refinancing rate would depend on the economic development, and could not depend any more on the previous level of confidence", - the minutes said.

All Committee members voted for increase of the rate on 0,25 points up to 4,5 percents.

However, there was not a formulation of growth of the rate at "moderate" paces in the meeting minutes. Today's minutes has not explained why the word "moderate" was not used. The last meeting on December, 13th FRS declared that it used this word to avoid possible mistakes, that the bank could raise the rate on more than a quarter of a percent.

Yesterday the dollar was supported a little and after an issue of the index of leading indicators report of independent organization Conference Board.

In January the index of leading indicators of the USA showed growth the 4-th month in a row due to improvement of a situation on a labor market and strengthening of a manufacturing industry that indicates speed-up of rates of economic growth.

Index rise in January made 1.1 % - maximal since June - after the revised value for December of +0.3 %. As a result the January indicator reached a mark 140.1 against 138.6 in December. Earlier the index showed growth within more than 3 straight months only in 2004.

According to Bloomberg News median economists expected that in January growth would make only 0.6 % from initial value for December of +0.1 %. As a whole the range of forecasts varied from 0.2 % up to 0.9 %.

Six of 10 components of the index were positive last month. The maximal contribution to growth of the index was made owing to drop in jobless claims (0.36 %). The following on the importance was growth of money supply (0.34 %). Building permits spurted 6.8 %  (the maximal gain since December, 2002) also added 0.18 % to index of leading indicators.

Technical picture. The medium-term dollar trend marked the top - at a level 1,1850.

The prices were stabilized in a narrow range of the prices.

The fundamental background is gradually inclining to the dollar, there are no significant factors for growth of euro and pound sterling now. Stabilization of the oil market because of the probability of the Iranian problem settlement and growth of the US economic indicators can tip the scale to dollar side.

Euro sales from levels 1,1850-1,1810 will be important with the purposes 1,1720 - 1 purpose and 1,1640 - 2 purpose.

Similar levels are for pound sterling:

Sales from 1, 7360, with the first purpose 1,7250 and the second purpose 1,7164