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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Today market’s attention is directed to key data of this week- consumer price level

14:59 02/22/2006

So, as well as the majority of experts assumed the decision on the basic interest rates increase by 0.25 %, made at US FRS FOMC meeting on January, 31st, was taken unanimously.

Let's remind that it became known yesterday after the publication of the minutes of FOMC meeting and as the information did not become unexpected and the market’s reaction was not significant.

 

Let's also notice that the text of the minutes was noticed that the current economic situation was not simple, however, rates of growth of the American economy were high enough.

Besides the minutes were said that to level risks of growth of inflationary pressure it would likely to be necessary the further toughening of the US FRS monetary policy.

 

Today the federal funds rate makes 4.50 %, and in opinion of some FED representatives, now it has not reached a neutral level.

 

Overwhelming majority of experts forecast that following increase of the rate on 0,25 % takes place in March of this year. The publication of the document has only confirmed these forecasts.

 

It is necessary to notice, nevertheless, that despite the general positive tone of the document long-term aggressive increase of a level of interest rates in the USA should not be expected.

It is remarkable that all members of the meeting have agreed that the future steps in the context of change of monetary policy will depend on the subsequent economic indicators.

 

The analysis of ECB further steps also has not changed essentially –the fact that the decision of the next increase of rates will be taken on March, 2nd - is quite expected by the market’s players, and is considered by current quotations.

However, the statement of ECB representatives right after the meeting will probably clear up a situation concerning the bank’s future decisions. While, considering uncertainty of the further steps of two largest world Central Banks, big gamblers prefer to be outside of the market.

 

It is also necessary to pay attention to that positive data on leading indicators index in the USA for January, having been considerably above the forecasts, could not support much the dollar.

Let's remind that a value of the indicator, at the forecast +0.4 %, was equal to +1.1 %. And the previous value has been revised from +0.1 % up to +0.3 %.

 

Today, besides the important economic indicators of the leading European countries, and the general data over Europe (12) the publication of the minutes of Bank’s of England Committee on the monetary policy meeting of February, 8-9th at 09:30 GMT, and also the key data of the week- consumer prices level at 13:30 GMT are planned. In many respects these data will help to clear up a situation of FOMC further steps.

So the forecast of a value of consumer price index for January is equal to +0.4 % for a month. We shall remind that the previous value was -0.1 % for a month, +3.4 % for a year.

And the forecast of a value of consumer price index, excluding prices for foodstuffs and energy, in the USA for January is equal to +0.2 % for a month. And the previous value was +0.1 % for a month, +2.2 % for a year.

 

As a result, considering importance of today's publication of inflation data, we recommend to keep position outside of the market. The probability that after the publication of the American data at 13:30 GMT the market will determine its choice of the further direction is quite high.

It is also necessary to notice that technical indicators are varied now and do not give reliable signals.

Thus the probability of some correction against dollar seems high enough.

While it is necessary to keep a waiting position.

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