So, we shall remind that right after publication of preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the USA for February, which was unexpected for the market’s players, the dollar exchange rate was under pressure.

The value of the index made 87.4, at the forecast 92.5, and the previous value 91.2. Thus the component of expectations decreased up to 74.4 points from 78.9 points in January. And the component of the index, reflecting current conditions, dipped up to 107.7 points in February from 110.3 points in January.

Reduction of a level of consumers’ confidence was caused by growth of house heating expenses, economists say. It is expected that fuel cost will be up 24 % this winter in comparison with previous one. As a result the situation makes households to cut down expenses on consumer goods.

Let's also notice that the given index is calculated monthly on results of 500 families’ survey and is one of key indicators of the American economic condition.

As a result drop in a dollar exchange rate was strengthened by the market’s low activity before long weekends in the USA, that has led to a sharp movement of currency pairs. We shall remind that on Monday in the USA there will be a day off - the President Day that is why the financial market in the country will be closed.

Another important indicator of the American economy - the producer price index in the USA in January, published a little bit earlier, being in line with the forecasts, did not cause significant reaction of the market.

So, producer prices in the USA were up 0.3 % m/m in January, as the analysts expected. And year over year in January the prices were up 5.7 %.

However, excluding foodstuffs and energy carriers, the prices were up 0.4 % m/m, and analysts waited for growth on 0.2 %. Year over year in January the core PPI was up 1.5 %.

Let's also remind that in December of the last year the prices were up 0.6 % by November and up 5.4 % by December, 2004.

The outlined tendency of oil quotations cut on Friday was subjected to a serious test - oil sharply rose in price at the final tenders in New York on a background of concern of the conflict escalation in Nigeria and intensity between Iran and the West, and also strengthened by fixing shorts before long days off.

Let's remind that on Friday Royal Dutch Shell company informed on decrease of oil production in Nigeria on 455.000 b/d after some attacks of militant to oil objects on Saturday. The militants took nine foreign hostages.

As a result March futures for oil WTI were up $1.42 to $59.75.

As a whole, according to our estimations, large market’s players continue to keep a waiting position. Despite the unexpectedly weak preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the USA for February, the general fundamental background is dollar-positive.

So, for example, Dow Jones agency notes that the dollar still keeps the support of Ben Bernanke’s optimistical estimation of economy. Besides this positive was sustained by house starts data last Thursday.

The additional intrigue in market speculation is brought by the rumors that the Chinese People's Republic can be recognized in a manipulation of exchange rates in April survey of the US Exchequer that will lead to that the market’s players will watch even closer any news concerning the Chinese currency.

As a result the steady thesis that yuan rise will certainly cause the Japanese yen rise, leads to heightened interest in trade of the Asian currencies.

Besides the yen is supported a little by the expectation of that the Bank of Japan, having put an end to the long-term ultraliberal monetary policy, will start to raise rates in September.

It is also necessary to notice that already today, on a background of low activity the market has not reacted in any way to the statement of ECB Head Jean-Claude Trichet. Trichet expressed the anxiety about inflation, but did not say anything new about the rates.

Moreover Trichet noted that the annual rise in prices could increase the nearest months whereas dynamics of wages while remained moderate. Trichet also noticed that last data on GDP reflected volatility of quarter growth.

As for a question of interest rates ECB Head noted tactfully that now they were at a historical minimum. Thus Trichet hinted that as the monetary market was strong, and the credit growth pointed out inflationary risks, and the annual gain of monetary aggregate M3 remained greater probability that rates would increase was high enough.

He also said that the secondary inflation, caused by a rise in oil prices and wages-push, can create problems for economy of Europe (12). The result of "inflation of the second circle " can be reduction of purchasing capacity and decrease in economic competitiveness.

Trichet concluded that ECB would watch closely current economic indicators and, if necessary, to act resolutely.

Let's remind that this week publications of GDP data in France, Germany and Great Britain will be in focus of attention of the market’s players. They will show validity of ECB managers’ anxiety.

Besides players will watch closely the release of data on a consumer price index. The report will show the inflation rate in the USA, and will allow to predict the US FRS further steps concerning interest rates.

Let's notice that on a background of small activity the basic currency pairs while continue trade in the middle of the day trading channels. ECB hawkish statement is leveled by positive data on economy of the USA. In such situation the most reasonable trading tactics can be only a waiting position.

Large market’s gamblers do not hurry up with active actions. Therefore we also recommend keeping patiently position outside of the market.