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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Bernanke’s speech did not determine further direction for dollar...

21:59 02/16/2006

So, the testimony of the US FRS new head Ben Bernanke could give to the American currency only a short-term impulse then the dollar again became stabilized. We shall remind that taking the floor before the Financial Committee of the US House of Representatives, Bernanke declared that the level of gross domestic product of the USA would make approximately +3.5 % in 2006 and unemployment would be up to standard of 4.75 %-5.00 %.

 

Bernanke also noted that current fundamental data would determine FRS further steps concerning change of rates, and today's level of interest rate in the country is quite low.

 

As a result experts concluded that Bernanke’s statement means that there will not be sharp changes of FRS monetary policy. It is most likely, as it was under Greenspan’s direction, the monetary policy remains same weighed and consistent.

Having taken advantage enough the low activity, caused by the publication of a series of significant data in the USA and the US FRS Chairman Bernanke’s testimony, some big market’s players tried to benefit by operation of stop orders.

 

Additional trading risks increased after the publication of data on volumes of foreign purchases of the American assets in December, which showed decrease in interest of foreign investors to the American assets.

Let's remind that a value of the indicator in December was at a level 56.6 billion dollars, and the previous value was equal to 91.6 billion dollars.

 

The other economic data, published yesterday, were also varied. So, industrial production in the USA fell to 0.2 % m/m in January whereas analysts predicted growth on 0.2 % m/m.

On the refined data, industrial production was up 0.9 % in December by November. Earlier it was informed on growth on 0.6 % in November by October, 2005.

The capacity utilization made 80.9 % in January against 81.2 % in November. Analysts expected reduction to 80.8 %.

And according to New York FRB data NY Empire State Index grew in February and made 20.31 points in comparison with 20.12 points in January.

Economists forecast that the index would make 18.30 points in February. The new orders index dropped to 26.48 points from 27.19 points in January. And the employment index made 5.19 points against January 11.29 points.

 

The dollar is supported by a proceeding falling the oil prices. We shall remind that the next wave of dip began right after the publication of stocks data. As the US Department of Energy informed today for a week, ended on February, 10th, 2006 oil stocks in the USA were up 4.9 million barrels (m/b) up to 325.6 m/b, petroleum stocks - up 2.2 m/b up to 225.5 m/b, distillates stocks - up 0.9 m/b up to 136.9 m/b, and stocks of oven fuel were down 0.7 m/ up to 57.3 m/b.

At the same time, the American Petroleum Institute informed that the total demand for oil and mineral oil in the USA was down 1.3 % y/y in January, 2006 owing to that expenses on oven fuel reduced because of warm weather.

In turn, such weather could not lead to the higher petroleum demand for motor-car enthusiasts. Oil deliveries in January, except for export, made in average 20,249 m/b in a day, that is 275.000 barrels a day less than the same period of the last year.

 

As a result right after the release of the report the oil price dipped and at the moment continue falling, being about a mark $59.45.

Analysts of the fuel market notice that, despite so long and significant falling, oil still has reserves of the further cut down to $56 for barrel.

Experts say that the March contract falls already the10 of the last 11 sessions, having lost approximately 14 % of its cost.

Today the publication of the whole series of the important economic data is planned. So, at 13:30 GMT following indicators will be published:

 

- Jobless claims in the USA for a week by 11.02. The forecast 280.000, the previous value 277.000;

- New home sales in million in the USA for January. The forecast 2.040, the previous value 1.933;

- Building permits in million in the USA for January. The forecast 2.060, the previous value 2.068;

- Import price index in the USA for January. The previous value -0.2 %;

- Export price index to the USA for January. The previous value +0.1 %.

 

And at 17:00 GMT the publication of business sentiment index of Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank in the USA for February is planned. The forecast 9.0, the previous value 3.3.

 

Unfortunately, recent correction of rates has not reached the purposes, stated by us, for opening new medium term purchases of the dollar/franc (1.3020) and dollar/canadian (1.1480). As a result, have not reached 15-20 points up to opening levels, the dollar again directed upwards.

Considering a current situation, we recommend to wait an outcome (in the form of deeper correction of rates), and only then, at presence of additional signals to consider an opportunity of new purchases of the mentioned rates.

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