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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

EURUSD, GBPUSD. Today all market’s attention will be concentrated on Ben Bernanke's testimony in US Congress, which starts at 15-00 GMT.

13:22 02/15/2006

Today Ben Bernanke's first report as the Head of Federal Reserve System of the USA – Board Chairman and FOMC Chairman takes place.

 

Players do not hurry up to start active sales and purchases before this event. Quotations are volatile within the limits of a currency corridor 1,1860-1,2000 on euro.

 

The dollar tests bottom level of support on a background of the mixed fundamental news and the massed drop in the oil prices.

 

Quotations of oil and petroleum dipped sharply on Tuesday on a background of the scale sales, caused by expectations of growth of stocks of energy carriers in the USA.

That has rendered significant support to the dollar.

 

March American light oil futures reduced in the price $1,67, or 2,7 percents up to $59,57 per a barrel. During the session the quotation fell up to $59,50 for barrel, the minimal mark since December, 29th.

 

In London oil Brent futures with delivery in April were down $1,10 to $59,52 per a barrel.

Petroleum stocks in the USA, being at a high level, on analysts’ expectations surveyed by Reuters, should increase even more - on 1,6 million barrels. Rise of oil stocks is expected on 1,2 million barrels.

 

The dollar became stronger on Tuesday and after the issue of data on retail sales and wholesale inventories.

According to the report of the Department on Commerce:

The Department of Commerce informed that retail sales in the USA in January were 2.3 % above the forecasts. Also the Department informed that growth of inventories decreased in December as growth of sales on 1.2 % exceeded growth of inventories on 0.7 %.

 

The volume of retail sales was up 2,3 % in January, owing to growth of car sales at the beginning of 2006. In December growth of sales, according to the revised data, made only 0,4 %. Earlier the Department informed that retail sales were up 0,7 % in December. Except for 3 % of growth in automobile sector, the total retail sales were up 2,2 % for a month. The indicator was maximal since March, 2004.

 

The increase in sales in January was observed practically in all categories of the goods, and rates of rise of this indicator is almost three times more the forecasts of 0,9 %. The level of retail sales is the important indicator of consumer expenses in the USA.

 

On the other hand, the European currencies were under pressure after the release of indexes of investors’ expectation according to statistical data of Institute ZEW and indexes of retail sales of the UK.

Investors’ expectations in Germany decreased in February that means the reduction of optimism in business circles according to data of the German Center of economic researches in Europe ZEW.

ZEW index of economic expectations reduced to 69,8 in February. While economists’ forecasts assumed the value of the index without changes at a level of 71,0.

Thus, the improvement of sentiment in business circles of Germany, which proceeded during last two months, stopped. In January ZEW index raised up to a two-year-old maximum 71,0, that is twice as much November indicator.

Despite this fact the subindex of current conditions grew up to -19,5 in February against -31,6 the last month that is explained by "increase in profit of the German companies".

 

The retail price index fell to 0,4 % in comparison with December and was up 2,4 % in comparison with the same period of the last year. In December the index was up 0,3 % and 2,2 %, correspondingly. The consumer price index dipped to 0,5 % in January to the last month, and was up 1,9 % y/y the second straight month, according to the National bureau of statistics of the UK. Besides data for December have been revised to decrease up to +1,9 % y/y from 2,0 % initially.

That makes quite important the drop in the rate of Bank of England at its next meeting.

 

Situation in the market while is in favor of dollar. However it is not worth hastening with opening positions, it is necessary to wait for reaction of the market to Ben Bernanke's speech in the Congress of the USA.

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