So, the key report of the last week disappointed the majority of investors. We shall remind that the final value of trade deficit balance of the USA made $65.68 billion in December of the last year, at the experts’ forecast at a level $65 billion against November value of $64.69 billion.

Thus import made $177.19 billion in December against $173.88 billion in November, export was up to $111.52 billion from $109.19 billion in November.

And on results of 2005 deficit made $725.76 billion against $617.58 billion a year earlier, that became a record.

Right after the publication of the report HSBC expert Jan Morris characterized these figures: "Export and import remain at high levels that allows to expect revision of GDP data in 4 quarter".

"Data on export should add about 0.5 % to gross domestic product, but import should take away about 1.1 %. On the other hand, last data on construction spending and stocks will influence positively on gross domestic product. As a result changes can be not so visible" - the strategist concludes.

Pointing out the reasons, which led to such a discouraging result, HFE expert Jan Sheperdson notices "there are three factors which have influenced seriously on December data. First, sales of air vessels were down 1.5 billion dollars that would not repeat any more in January . Secondly, petroleum deficiency was down 1.2 billion dollars because of drop in of prices that leveled almost all losses of planes. Thirdly, the coe deficiency – except for planes and oil – was up0.7 billion dollars. Export and import hiked, but in general rate of deficiency growth slowed down".

However Friday is Friday, and not to take into account this fact in intraday trade is always fraught with unpredictable consequences. So, right after the publication the euro/dollar rate shot almost instantly to 1.2020 where "being hampered" suddenly met the powerful sales which as a result have thrown the pair on 130 points. The similar situation was observed with the dollar/franc pair, which after falling up to a level of 1.2925, then shot up to a mark 1.3082.

As a result after Friday intensive sales, after the preliminary test of 1.2025, the euro/dollar rate was at levels of the beginning of the year, near 1.1891. It was the severe  punishment of "eurobulls". We shall notice that falling of a rate was so headlong on a background of low liquidity of the market and a huge quantity of protective stops under a level of 1.1960. It is necessary to sympathize with the players who sold the dollar after promulgation of so negative data for it.

The expectations of many players that the rate would remain in a former range before Ben Bernanke's statement in the Congress on February, 14th will not come true - on Friday the market informed on the new realities. Having reached in a moment the levels of December of the last year, the dollar declared confidently about prematurity of its "write-off".

The optimism of dollar sellers can be restored only by new wave of sales of the American currency, and growth of euro/dollar above a mark 1.2020-25 - that seems now extremely problematically. Inability to such movement will likely to cause the further strengthening of "greenback", and euro/dollar dip to levels 1.1380 - 1.1450 will be only a question of the nearest two months.

Probably a beginner will ask - how to avoid Friday "punishment" in future? We will answer. First of all, referring to a recent history, it is easy to notice that the third Friday in a row the euro shows the same script: after unsuccessful attempt of growth the rate is in the current of intensive sales therefore falls to new bottoms.

And secondly, and that is, perhaps, the main thing - the fundamental background still remains firmly in favor of the American currency. We shall remind that the last time the American data strengthen expectations that FRS will most likely to proceed to lift rates the nearest months. On this background the anxiety about structural problems recedes into the background.

And Friday data on the US trade balance which showed the further growth of deficiency, nevertheless pointed out the import rise, assuming further economic growth with prospect of inflationary pressure strengthening. It means also that the probability of rates rise also increases.

It seems quite natural that before the statement of FRS new chairman Ben Bernanke in the Congress on February, 14th with the report on the monetary policy, considering a current positive background for the dollar, the number of those, who wish to remain short on dollar, lessens.

As a result we suggest to plan long-term and medium-term dollar purchases. So, it is necessary to open long-term dollar purchases again at descending correction of a dollar/franc rate to a level of 1.3000-20.

The first purpose of growth of a dollar/franc rate can become 1.3105-35, and then, after a little correction - levels 1.3250-70.

And the nearest purpose of growth of a dollar/canadian rate will likely to become a level of 1.1620-30. Here the further growth of the pair will most likely to put to a serious test and as dependence of a rate of the Canadian currency on a situation in the oil market is rather great success of the further growth is difficult to predict. Therefore it is necessary to close purchases of the pair at these levels.