So, before the US trade balance data for December, investors do not hurry up with opening new positions. So, yesterday's statistical data, positive for dollar, did not lead nevertheless the American currency to growth.

Let's remind that jobless claims in the USA for a week by February, 4th, made 277000, at the forecast 285.000, and the previous value 273.000.

As a result jobless claims cut has shown that the labor market of the USA remains strong enough, and have supported the expectations of, at least, one more rate increase on March, 28th.

Another block of data - wholesale inventories in the USA for December has also been better than the forecasts. We shall remind that according to the message of the US Department of Commerce wholesale inventories rose on 1.0 % in December in comparison with November that exceeded considerably the analysts’ forecasts of 0.4 %.

Thus durable goods inventories, which life time is not less than three years, were up 0.6% m\m in December.

And wholesales were up 1.0 % against decline of 0.7 % in November. Inventories-sales ratio made 1.15 months in December in comparison with 1.15 months in November.

For 2005 wholesales were up 8.3 % to $3.614 billion against $3.338 billion in 2004.

The buyers of "greenback" felt some uncertainty after the statement of Chicago FRB President Michael Moskou, who said about the concern on the further rise in prices on energy carriers and wage- push.

Moskou also declared that the weak indicator of GDP growth in the fourth quarter was caused by temporary factors. Chicago FRB Head noted that there were many problems before FED would turn to inflation as the purpose of monetary policy.

However, not depriving the market’s players of hope for the further increase, Moscou noticed that FRS should answer the strengthening of inflationary expectations.

Let's remind once again that the main driver of dollar rise of last weeks were expectations of the rate increase by the Federal Reserve of the USA in March and May, however players have not hurried up yet with purchases of dollars as they wish to be sure once again of that the risks in the form of trade balance do not prove to be true.

The last days the attention gradually turns to today's American trade data as this report will be considered at the US FRS March meeting.

We shall also remind that some difficulties in trade with Chinese People's Republic caused the anxiety. So, China’s trade proficiency with the USA was up 25 percents to $ 185.3 billion in the first 11 months of the last year.

As a result the total American trade deficit in 2005 has, probably, reached a record above $700 billion.

Let's remind that the forecast of the value of trade balance of the USA for December is -63.0 billion dollars, and the previous value was equal to -64.2 billion dollars. The publication is planned at 13:30 GMT.

And though the US Minister of Finance John Snow constantly demands China to allow its currency to change under influence of the market forces, there is no use relying on that in the near future the Chinese government will take into account wishes of the American minister.

Moreover, looking at impunity of the great neighbour, other Asian states do not disdain to manipulate their own currencies.

As a result we recommend waiting for descending correction of dollar then there are possible new purchases of a dollar/franc rate. The first purpose of this correction will be levels 1.2875-90. At achievement of these purposes, at presence of signals of growth, the opening of new "longs" becomes optimum.

While it is still necessary to keep a waiting position.