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NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Basic pairs are stable in narrow ranges, but dollar is preferable in purchases...

12:13 02/08/2006

So, on a background of absence of news on economy of the USA the basic currency pairs stabilized in rigid ranges. So, during yesterday's trading day the euro/dollar rate did not changed practically.

 

On this background the situation around a dollar/yen rate plays an important role. We shall notice that after several weeks of the Japanese currency rate easing some investors started to close short positions on yen. We shall remind that after the fortnight growth, which began on January, 23rd, the dollar/yen rate was sharply down more than 150 points, to a mark of 117.54.

 

Some analysts have already worried that the Bank of Japan can give the signal of the end of an ultra-free monetary policy in the near future. We shall remind that earlier Bank of Japan representatives had already said about it

Experts also believe that reduction of pressure on yen, except for the above-stated reasons, was promoted by drop in the world oil prices.

 

Let's remind that yesterday the oil price in New York was down almost 2 dollars below a level of closing of the previous day, and reached a mark of 63.09 dollars for barrel, and today oil has already traded below 63 dollars for barrel.

The oil market analysts assume that falling of oil quotations is caused by expectations of growth of oil and petroleum stocks in the USA. We shall remind that data will be published today at 14:30 GMT.

It is remarkable, that many market’s players are also convinced that Iran will not stop to export oil, despite the possible sanctions from Security Council of the United Nations.

 

However some experts indicate that the volume of oil production of OPEC countries in January was down 555.000 to 29.605 million. The Most significant cut of production happened in Nigeria which exported 250.000 barrels a day less than in December.

And International Atomic Energy Agency Head Claude Mandil declared yesterday that oil rally would go on if OPEC did not invest into oil production, pointing out the minimal sum of investments 500 billion dollars.

Mandil also noticed that the US President call to lower dependence of the USA on oil import from the Near East could hardly promote growth of investments.

 

And Mitsui and Co. Ltd. strategists believe that in August, 2006 the oil price can already make up $96 for barrel. We shall remind that August and September are the peak period of hurricane activity in the USA. So, a  year ago at this time in the USA a turn of hurricanes promoted powerful growth of the raw market quotations.

 

Let's remind that after the federal budget for 2007,offered by the president of the USA Bush, which assumes to make constant tax remissions, which validity expires at the end of 2008, the US Minister of Finance John Snow said to the Congress members yesterday that the federal budget provided the reduction of deficit even if expiring tax remissions became constant.

Bush also suggested on Monday to increase defense expenditure, to cut down expenses on social program Medicare and to abolish a set of internal programs within the bounds of the budget statement with expenses at a level of $2.77 billion.

 

It is obvious, that such budget causes economists’ questions. As a result experts, noticing hyperactivity in cross rates of the Japanese yen, gold and oil, point out that players revise their portfolios, and some transactions seem involuntary.

 

As a result, despite the high probability of some correction against dollar we recommend to keep earlier opened long positions on dollar/franc. We shall remind that the key purpose of these purchases is at a mark of 1.3100.

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