After sharp strengthening yesterday, caused by positive Friday news releases over the USA, dollar is consolidated at strong levels of support. Today large market makers fix their positions before the significant block of news over the USA, expected on Friday.

Let's remind that on Friday the market waits for the report of the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce, Trade Balance data for December, 2005. The previous value – Trade Deficit Balance made $64,2 million, analysts forecast a little increase of the deficit to $64,5 million.

And also the Treasury Budget report, U.S. Treasury Department, for January, 2006. The previous value - proficiency $8.6 million, analysts forecast reduction of proficiency on $2,0 million to $5,0 mln.

The basic deterrent for dollar rise is the situation in the oil market.

The oil prices have grown because of the fears concerning supplies, on a background of the further escalation of the conflict around Iran.

The last weekends IAEA decided to transfer the file of Iran to Security Council of the United Nations. In response yesterday Teheran began works on enrichment of uranium and  the United Nations inspections were not admitted to the enterprises.

IAEA will transfer Iranian "nuclear file" to Security Council of the United Nations. In opinion of experts on nuclear safety, there is no confidence that the nuclear program of Iran is exclusively peaceful. Military and civil objects of the country are closed, documentation is not available, IAEA officials are not allowed to the reactors, and there is one step from works on enrichment of uranium to creation of own nuclear bomb.

27 from 35 countries, which representatives participated in the session, were for this resolution. Russia is also among them, which earlier suggested many times the variants of the way out of an impasse. Venezuela, Cuba and Syria were against such a decision. Algeria, Belarus, Libya, Indonesia and Southern Africa abstained from voting. Transfer of "the nuclear file" to Security Council of the United Nations promises Iran many troubles in future, starting with economic sanctions and finishing with the saddest consequences. The Pentagon is already developing plans of air strikes on nuclear objects of Iran. However, troubles will not begin now. IAEA will send the file to the Security Council only in March, and if till this moment Iran gives up its ambitious plans, there will not any sanctions. However, the matter went too far, it is hardly that this or that party will crawfish.

March futures on the US crude oil light sweet have risen in price on 70 cents up to $66 for barrel, and March futures on oil Brent have grown in price on 71 cent up to $64 for barrel.

Moods in favor of dollar against euro were strengthened after the statement of the European Central Bank Head J.-K. Trichet.

On Monday ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said that he adhered to his comments, made at press conference on February, 2^nd, when he declared that the market’s expectations about rates "are reasonable".

He told to Bloomberg that he adheres to the statements, made at press conference, that the market forecast, according to which ECB would raise the rate in the 1 quarter of 2006, "is reasonable".

Pound sterling sharp falling against dollar, except for the positive fundamental data over the USA, was promoted by weak retail sales data.

Retail sales in the UK dipped sharply in January from a peak of December, retail sales dealers informed on drop in sales after the end of a holiday season, according to British Retail Consortium survey.

Retail sales were up 0.2 % y\y in January against growth on 2.6 % y\y in December. BRC declared that it was the worst growth of sales in January since 1995. The total sales rose on 3.4 % y\y in January against 6.2 % in December.

The market is under impression of a positive of fundamental data over the USA, published the last week. Dollar positions remain stronger against the European currencies. However the tension around Iran and probability of worst events can bring down the oil market that will put strong pressure upon dollar positions.

On the recommendations, given the last week:

«Eurodollar Quotations have approached closely to key levels 1,2040-1,2000. Expectation of the further rate increase and positive data on growth of nonfarm payrolls can enable dollar to press support levels. There is quite probable correction deepening. Therefore Shorts on euro under these levels with 1 purpose 1,1915 and the perspective purpose 1,1720 are important.

Pound sterling the same levels - Shorts from a support level of 1,7635, 1 purpose - 1,7545, 2 purpose - 1,7415. »

Shorts according to these recommendations are kept:

Euro: stop moved to make-out.

Pound sterling the 1 purpose has been reached - 1,7545, a position with the purpose 1,7415 is kept, stop is moved to make-out at an entry line.