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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

Market’s daily review

18:35 02/06/2006

At Friday tenders the American currency rose after the publication of the US employment data. In its turn strengthening on a labor market in the USA increased the expectations of FRS discount rate rise the next month.

As the US Department of Labor informed on Friday on a background of strengthening of the US economy 193000 new jobs were created in January, and the rate of unemployment in January reached almost a five years' minimum of 4.7 % in January.

The nonfarm payrolls were below the predicted 248000, but they were revised to increase in sum of 81000 in December and November, that became above the expected one.

Unemployment falling up to a minimum level since April, 2001 was unexpected. Economists considered that the rate of unemployment would remain without changes at 4.9 %. The unemployment decline was due to revision of the private surveys for a year.

As a whole the report showed strengthening of a labor market.

 

On Friday the Department of Commerce of the USA informed that the factory orders, made in the USA, went up 1.1 % in December, mainly owing to growth of durable orders and investments into means of production.

Deliveries increased essentially in December - on 2.2 %.

Durable orders were up 1.8 % while orders for the means of production rose on 4.1 %.

Growth of factory orders exceeded the forecast of 0.9 %.

 

Rates of growth in service sector of the USA decreased in January, but remained high. The business index of financial services, building sector, retail trade and other service sectors, made by Institute for Supply Management, dipped up to 56.8 in January against 61 in December.

Economists predicted value of the index at a level of 60.0.

Consumer sentiment in the USA worsened in January, researchers from University of Michigan informed.

The final index of consumer sentiment made 91.2 in January against 91.5 in December and an initial estimation 94.3 in the middle of January, according to press messages.

Economists expected the sentiment index to make 93.1 in a final reading.

The index of current conditions rose up to 113.2 against 109.1 in December and 112.0 in the middle of January.

The index of expectations fell to 79.0 from 80.2 in December and 81.5 in the middle of January.

 

The British currency was under pressure after the publication of PMI index in service sector.

As data of PMI index showed rates of growth in service sector of the UK dropped in January.

PMI CIPS in service sector reduced to 57.0 in January against 57.9 in December. According to the forecast the index should have decreased to 57.3.

On closer examination of the index the subindex of new business decreased up to 56.9 against 58.3.

The subindex of the average prices at cast came down to 52.6 against 53.5, and the average prices at entry raised up to 58.6 against 58.5.

While the component of employment came off to 52.0 against 52.3, and the index of business expectations picked up to 75.1, a peak since March of the last year (73.2).

Data on inflation in Eurozone, published on Friday, confirm Trichet’s words that risks of growth of price pressure were kept in a region.

According to Eurostat preliminary data, HICP in Eurozone rose up to 2.4 % y\y in January against not revised level of 2.2 % in December. Inflation in E-12 remains above ECB target level of 2 %. However last months ECB constantly repeated that it was expected.

Monthly growth of consumer prices was because of a rise in fuel and petroleum prices, warming should lower the pressure of demand on the energy markets. However the political instability connected with Iran, can prevent price adjustment.

HICP final data for January will be released on February, 28th.

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