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Forex · News · Forex Forecasts

NEWS / Forex Forecasts

USDCHF,USDCAD Friday data, at their ambiguity, support dollar...

13:14 02/06/2006

So, the nonfarm payrolls in the USA made +193.000for January, at the forecast 240.000. And the previous value has been revised from +108000 up to +140000.

Thus the unemployment in the USA made 4.7 % for January, at the forecast 4.7 %, and the previous value 4.9 %. And the average hourly earnings index in the USA made +0.4 % for January, at the forecast +0.3 %. And the previous value has been revised from +0.3 % up to +0.4%.

 

The market’s reaction was in line with the publication. So, right after the release of news the first reaction was a dollar exchange rate falling in response to lower than it was expected January nonfarm payrolls figures. However, then the market players estimated revision of December figures and essential cut of unemployment rate - on 0,2 % at once and then the dollar began to hike.

As a result after the publication of the US labor market review for January the market’s players believe that after March US FRS rate increase, May increase will also follow.

 

HSBC expert Yan Morris’s statement became very characteristic estimation of a situation after the publication of the review: "A labor market give to us - employment rise proceeds, and the unemployment rate fell on 0.2 % that happens quite seldom. And when it happens, the economy shows hiking and FRS raises rates. Considering that the total employment of the population makes up 66 %, it is possible to say that this is structural, not cyclic change. So FRS has a lot  to do. By our estimation, the rate should reach 5.5 %".

 

And ECU Group principal economist Neil Makinnon says: "While the headline was unfavorable, there are other places in the report which can point out that the labor market of the USA is in the good condition. There is nothing in the message to exclude the rate increase in March".

It is quite logical that after such fundamental support the American currency will get a powerful positive impulse to the further rise.

 

Other two Friday indicators were below the forecast that enabled the market to correct so significant previous falling.

So, final value of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the USA made 91.2 for January, at the forecast 93.4, and preliminary value 93.4.

Thus the component of the index, reflecting current conditions, rose up to 110.3 points in January from 109.1 points in December. The preliminary January value - 112.0 points.

And the component of expectations reduced up to 78.9 points from 80.2 points in December. According to the preliminary results the value of the index made 81.5 points the first month of the year.

Let's remind, that the University of Michigan index is calculated by results of the survey of about 500 families, the report is published monthly.

The second indicator - business index in service sphere of Institute of Supply Management of the USA made 56.8 for January, at the forecast 60.8, and the previous value 61.0.

Thus the employment index went down to 51.1 points in January from December 56.9. The price index did not change, having remained at a level of 67.2 points. And the new orders index in service sphere dipped to 56.0 points from 62.2.

Let's remind that value of the indicator above 50 points means expansion in the sector, below - recession. ISM calculates the index on the basis of data from managers of 370 companies from 62 service centers. More than 85 % of volume of the US gross domestic product falls to the share of service sphere.

As a result, despite some slowdown of business activity growth in service sector, nevertheless, Friday data confirm that the situation in this sphere improves at good rates.

Experts believe that the increase in employment and consumer household incomes will lead to growth of expenses in the first quarter of 2006, unlike their reduction because of hurricanes the second half of last year.

As a result, the players, who opened long-term dollar/franc "longs" from a level of 1.2920, should continue to hold these positions. We shall remind that the first purpose of growth is at a level 1.3100. Then, after little correction, we expect continuation of strategic growth of the pair.

The situation with dollar/canadian, because of the big dependence of a Canadian currency rate on position in the market of energy carriers, is less predictable. So, for a start, the further growth of a rate is possible if it enters again the limits of a former trading range (1.1485 - 1.1785). Only after that there is possible a further growth of the pair. While it is necessary to keep a waiting position.

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